3% #462 Detroit Lions (-8) over Chicago Bears —
Just looking at the divisional records alone ATS in recent years you have to start looking at the Lions. Detroit is 7-0 ATS vs. DIV opponents in the L2Y, winning by 9 PPG on average, while Chicago is just 2-12 ATS vs. NFC North in the L3Y, losing by double digits on average.
Plus, Detroit is definitely a better team at home this season. Their offense is averaging nearly 30 PPG, while their defense is holding opponents under 21 PPG on average. Not to mention, Jared Goff has a solid history against this Bears team, especially at home. Goff is 5-2 ATS vs. Chicago in his career, but a perfect 4-0 ATS @ H.
Finally, when you look at the Bears reliance to run the ball on the season … now Fields is returning for a thumb injury and Herbert returns to the lineup, you have to think that the Bears may be even MORE prone to running the ball in this game. Although, Detroit is a top 5 rushing defense on the season, and that may not fair well for the Bears in this one.
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