Recent Play Details

2%  Dorian Thompson-Robinson (CLE) OVER 25.5 Pass Attempts (-130) — 

If you guys watched WagerTalk’s Last Call on Saturday you may have seen me give out this play, except for the fact that it has actually come down by a full pass attempt. There are THREE (3) keys here in my opinion that make this a full blown play on prop: 

1. There has to be a new-found level of confidence for DTR. He now has the “jitters” out of the way, having a start under his belt. Plus, the fact that the Browns are going BACK to him after PJ Walker went 2-1 with TWO game-winning drives, means the Browns have some confidence in him as well. 
2. This isn’t the first time we have seen a backup in Cleveland this year, and in the previous opportunities, Stefanski and the offense really haven‘t shifted the game plan. PJ Walker threw the ball 31+ times in all 3 of his starts, and DTR threw the ball 36 in his debut! Which is actually the 2nd most in a game by a Cleveland QB this season, with Deshaun Watson throwing 40 vs. Pittsburgh (week 2), besides that DTR’s 36 is the highest on the year for the Browns.
3. The Browns rank 1st in the league in average time of possession. I know what you are thinking, with all these injuries and their ability to run the ball, that is what Cleveland has to do. While I do not thing you are wrong, the Browns offense breaks down like this … 
   • 648 offensive plays
   • 9 games played
     • 72 plays/game …
       • OVER 25.5 pass attempts = only 36.1% of plays!

I think there is definitely value here, if the Browns keep a similar average, this is only asking them to throw the ball 36% of the time! They can still run the ball nearly 64% of the plays (compared to their season average in plays/game) and DTR can go over this number. They showed some faith in his arm during his debut, and they obviously have some confidence going back to him.