Event: (453) Arizona Cardinals at (454) Houston Texans Sport/League: NFL Date/Time: November 19, 2023 1PM EST Play Rating: 3% Odds: -110 Play: 3% – (453) Arizona Cardinals at (454) Houston Texans Total Over 48.0 (-110) Result: Loss
Ariz +4.5 vs Hou (47.5)
Here is what we know - Houston can score a ton and Arizona can’t play D - let’s start with Houston.
WOW to CJ and this Houston team - sitting in a Wild Card spot and they just beat the Bengals in Cincy. They scored 30 against Cincy and 39 against TB in their last 2 games and are averaging over 24 points per game.
Now they face the 5th worst D in football, allowing over 26 points per game. So if Houston averaged 24 points and were capable of scoring 30 and 39 against 2 better defenses, how many points are they putting up against this anemic Cardinal D - I think they get 30 easy - but let’s go with 30.
That means we need 19 points from Arizona to get this over the total.
On the entire year this Arizona team has averaged 17.6 points per game, but that is without Murray and I think he is an improvement from Dobbs and whoever.
Murray and the Cards just put up 25 on Atlanta who has a pretty good D. Murray threw for 230 yards and they also got 122 yards on the ground.
While Houston is lights out right now on offense, their D struggles. They are in the bottom half of the league in points allowed at 21.3 per game and they are in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed.
I think we have one really bad d unit, one mediocre D unit, 1 team that can score 30 and has twice in a row and 1 team that can score especially with Murray back.
28-21 gets us over the total and I think we might see a game that gets into the mid 50s.