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$147 wager wins $100

Duncan to not go the distance -360

Last second replacement Denis Tiuliulin isn't good, and his fights get over quick as 9 in a row have not gone the distance.  Duncan has great striking and will probably put Tiuliulin to sleep with his striking, but I'll take this fight to not go the distance in case Tiuliulin catches a clean KO shot.

Michael Morales -310

Michael Morales keeps passing all the tests as he rises up the rankings in the UFC, and he can be tough to bet on because he’s young and the books are putting him at a big favorite, and you’re having to bet on him with the assumption that he keeps making improvements in between fights.  He beat Max Griffin by decision, and it was a solid win as Griffin tried to clinch and Morales was able to stuff and separate which let him land his punches at range which is his best weapon.  I think Jake Matthews is pretty similar to Max Griffin, and I’m not high on Matthews at all.  He beat Darrius Flowers last fight, but Flowers was a last minute debutant who was in over his head.  Before that, Matthews lost to Semelsberger which is not a good look.  Morales has the better striking, and Matthews will try and wrestle and get it to the ground, but Morales showed he has added solid takedown defense to his arsenal so I don’t see Matthews having much success.  Morales is low volume, but his strikes are accurate and powerful and that will propel him to the win here.