Recent Play Details

4% Cleveland ML (1:00 ET): After several days of deliberation, I’ve decided to roll with the Browns, who will be starting DTR at QB. Those of you that have been following me for any length of time know that this is more of a fade on the Steelers, who could generously be termed a “lucky” 6-3 SU as they’ve been outgained in every game. (Not even Arizona can say they’ve been outgained in every game anymore). It’s not just that the Steelers are being outgained; they have one of the worst net yardage differentials in the entire league (-96.1 YPG) and are also being outgained by nearly a full yard per play. That this team is 6-3 SU is basically an affront to all that I believe in and I have zero hesitation in calling them “frauds.” 

QB Kenny Pickett (who I call “Kenny Tebow” as he’s incapable of leading more than one quality drive per game) is not good. The Steelers beating the Browns 26-22 back in Week 2 is probably the most misleading final of the year as Deshaun Watson tossed TWO pick 6’s in a game the Steelers’ offense never got inside the Browns’ 30-yard line. The Browns outgained the Steelers in that game 408-255. Par for the course as Pittsburgh is now the ONLY team in NFL history to be outgained in its first nine games and still have a winning SU record. At some point, the madness must end. They have 36 fewer first downs than the opposition this season. Since 2021, they have just three wins by more than eight points and have been outscored by 119 points in 44 regular season contests! 

Obviously, we must now address the “elephant in the room” that is DTR starting at QB for the Browns. I expect a VERY conservative offensive game plan here and Kevin Stefanski to have his top-ranked defense win this game. DTR did not look good in his only previous start, but (depending on who you believe) that may have come on limited notice. It’s not like Watson has been that great and remember the Browns beat San Francisco with PJ Walker as the starting QB. This defense should dominate Pickett and the Steelers offense. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ defense is dealing with several key injuries, especially at linebacker. It’s all about the Steelers being WELL overdue for a loss. 4% Cleveland ML (Play to -140)