In the upcoming matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the New Orleans Pelicans, the Timberwolves, standing at 8-3, are concluding a five-game road trip. They're coming off a significant loss to the Suns, which can be partly attributed to playing back-to-back games. The Pelicans, with a 6-6 record, have recently secured two consecutive wins as underdogs against the Mavericks and the Nuggets. However, they're entering this game on the 2nd leg of back-to-back games, which could be a challenge for them, as seen in their 18-point loss to the Hawks when they were less rested than their opponent.
In terms of roster health, the Timberwolves are at an advantage with no significant injuries, while the Pelicans will be missing key players like Larry Nance, Trey Murphy, CJ McCollum, and Jose Alvarado. The Timberwolves have demonstrated a strong focus on defense after losses, winning both games following a loss this season and limiting their opponents to under 90 points in each of those games. On the other hand, despite the Pelicans' recent offensive uptick, they face a challenge against the Timberwolves' top-rated defense, particularly in fast break points and paint defense.
I'm expecting the Pelicans' offense to regress a little bit…My model has the Timberwolves winning, 114-105.