2% #397 SMU Mustangs (-8.6) over Memphis —
I am honestly disappointed to see that James Madison is going to continue to be ineligible for a bowl this season, but one thing is for certain, SMU is NOT. They are still fighting to be the top group of 5 team in the nation, and they have another big opportunity to prove it here. Memphis is also 8-2, so this game isn’t a walk in the park, but you wouldn’t guess that from the line, and I agree with the large line here.
SMU is the better team, when it comes to covering the numbers, SMU is 4-1 ATS in the L5, winning by big margins and proving they are a dominant team, especially on the offensive side of the ball. In the L4 games they have put up 35+ points in every one of them.
Memphis may be 8-2 SU on the season, but they are just 2-7-1 ATS. Plus, both of their covers actually came on the road. At home this season, Memphis has actually allowed opponents to put up 76 yards ABOVE what they are averaging offensively on the season, that ranks 131st (out of 133 teams) in that NATION! On top of that, you look at conference play, they are allowing opponents to go over their offensive yardage average by 71 yards (126th in FBS).
In the L4W Memphis has allowed nearly 500 YPG, including 200+ rushing and nearing 300 through the air. SMU has proven they can attack either way, and have a big opportunity to put up some big numbers against this Memphis team as they look for their 3rd win in the L4 meetings against the Tigers.