Recent Play Details

BP NOTE: Well, with the Rams now favored, a teaser simply isn't an option. Don't recommend teasing through 0.

3% 2-team, 6-point Teaser - LA Rams (4:25 ET) and Minnesota (8:20 ET): HC Sean McVay came out Friday and said the Rams are “as healthy as they’ve been since September.” That sure sounds like a positive development and of course the most notable returnee for Sunday will be QB Matthew Stafford. Early in the week, news of Stafford’s impending return led to this line “jumping the fence” and the Rams were slight favorites. As of Friday, the Seahawks are now favored. I did a free play video earlier in the week saying Seattle as a dog would be the play, but with the role reversal, I’m teasing the Rams. It’s not a great spot for the Seahawks, who played last Sunday (beat Washington 29-26 on a last second FG) and have the 49ers on deck for a huge Thanksgiving Night showdown at home. Meanwhile, LA is not only healthy, but rested coming off its bye. They aren’t playing on Turkey Day. Back in Week 1, the Rams beat the Seahawks 30-13 as 4.5-point road underdogs. They are now 9-1 ATS the L10 head to head meetings (6-0 L6) with three of the four SU losses coming by four points or less. So teasing this number seems wise as the Rams should have little difficulty staying within one score. The Seahawks’ defense allows the 5th most rushing yards per game (173.7) and is 25th overall. Pete Carroll’s team has just three wins by more than six points this season and those were against: the Panthers, Giants and Cardinals. While 6-3 SU, Seattle has a negative YTD point differential, so they look like a regression candidate. 

Coming into the 2023 NFL season, I did not expect to play on the Vikings many times. As we all know, they were complete “frauds” last year, winning 13 games despite a negative point differential. Sure enough, I faded the Vikes in Week 1 and they lost outright at home to the Bucs. At 1-4 SU, it definitely looked like the regression monster had gotten them. But all of a sudden, despite losing QB Kirk Cousins to a season-ending injury, this team has life. They’ve won and covered five straight - the longest win streak in the NFL - including last week’s outright upset of the Saints, 27-19. I teased the Vikes in that one and will do the same again here. Josh Dobbs has been shockingly great thus far, becoming the 1st player in league history with 400+ yards passing, 100+ yards rushing and 0 INT’s in his first two games with a new team. The market continues to underrate Minnesota in the wake of the Cousins injury. I have them rated as better than the Broncos, who got gifted a win Monday Night by a Bills team that turned the ball over four times and committed some stupid penalties late. Denver’s defense is still last against the run and this is a good time to sell high on them, laying points off a short week. The Broncos are 4-15-1 ATS L20 tries as chalk, with 13 outright losses, and have covered only once in that role with Russell Wilson at QB. Even with all the Buffalo mistakes, the Broncos still needed a second-chance at a last second FG to get the win. They have one win by more than three points this season. 3% 2-team, 6-point teaser - LA Rams (+7 or higher) and Minnesota (+7 or higher)