Recent Play Details

3% Take the LA Rams (#470)

Geno Smith played a good game against Washington last week, avoiding turnovers and leading Seattle on a last minute scoring drive to emerge with the SU win (not the cover at -7).  That said, Geno had committed eight turnovers in his previous four games.  He’s been rough on the highway, throwing only one TD pass in his last three road tilts. Geno threw for only 112 yards on 4.3 yards per attempt when Seattle lost – in non-competitive blowout fashion -- at home to these Rams on opening day.  Smith threw three INT’s in two games against LA last year as well – LA’s defensive gameplan has consistently given him fits.

Seattle’s defense is getting worse, not better.  They’ve got a cluster injury problem in the secondary.  Their run defense has been gashed to the tune of 5.5 yards per carry over their last three games; tied for dead last in the NFL during that span. And opposing QB’s have had time to throw against Pete Carroll’s pass rush.  Among NFL teams with a winning record, only the Dolphins and Eagles have allowed a higher QB rating than the Seahawks this season.

LA lost three straight games prior to their bye week, the last two after Matthew Stafford got hurt.  Stafford is healthy again as are the vast majority of his weapons; the team seems rejuvenated after their bye week based on the quotes.  And it’s surely worth noting what’s been going on in this series since Sean McVay took over as head coach following the ill-fated Jeff Fisher era.

McVay is 1-0 ATS against Pete Carroll this year.  He went 2-0 ATS against Carroll and the Seahawks last year.  He went 2-0 ATS against Carroll in 2021.  In fact, in ten meetings since 2019, McVay is 9-1 ATS against Carroll, an impressive track record of success in this coaching matchup; an under-the-radar coaching angle worth noting.  McVay’s had extra time to prepare this year; Seattle is coming off a brutal, physical, hard fought win.  Seattle’s last pointspread cover off a win came the first weekend of October. I’m not expecting another one here….. Take the Rams

Line Parameter: 3% at –1.5 (or lower), pk or as an underdog.  2% at -2 or higher