Recent Play Details

TB +10.5 vs SF (41.5) - Over

• Okay the SF bottom out is over and they are back being the best team in football.
• If you take out those 3 crappy games (all without Deebo), they have scored over 30 points in every game they played this season.
• SF is the 3rd best scoring team in football averaging 28 a game and I think those numbers are deflated - If Deebo was healthy they would be ahead of Miami and averaging closer to 34 points per game.
• SF are Top 10 in rushing and passing and frankly are impossible to stop.
• TB is okay on D - not incredible but they are in the top 10 in the league in stopping their opponents from scoring. Their big issue is stopping the pass, as they are the 2nd worst team in football at this. To be honest, I actually don’t care how good a D is when playing SF - its almost irrelevant as SF can score 30 on anyone in the league.
• So let’s bottom line this - I think SF gets at least 30 points again Sunday and that means we need 12 from TB to get over the total.
• Now TB has scored less than 12 twice this season 6 against Det and 11 against Philly, but they just put up 20 on Tenn, 37 on Houston and 18 against the Bills - and they are averaging 20 points per game.
• Now I know SF has a lights out D and held Jax to 3 points, but that is more of an aberration as they are allowing teams to score an average of 16 on them.
• With that said, I wouldn’t be surprised if SF gets to 34 points and with all the TB weapons on offense, I do think they get over 12 points.
• I see a 34-20 type of a game here with TB getting a late meaningless TD - but even before that TD, 34-13 still gets us over the total.
• We are playing this low total to the Over.
• 3% - TB/SF Over 41.5