Recent Play Details

2 Team 6 Point Teaser - Det -1.5 & Jax -1

No analysis on this play

BETS

• 5% - Buff -7
• 3% - 2 Team 6 Point Teaser - Det & Jax
• 3% - TB/SF Over 41.5
• 3% - Chi/Det Over 48
• 3% - Ariz/Hou Over 48

CIRCA (28-20-2 Record)

• Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
• Los Angeles Chargers -3.0
• Detroit Lions -8.0
• Miami Dolphins -13.5
• Buffalo Bills -7.0

LEANS (these lines and lines for analysis below are from Wed)

• LAC -3 vs GB
• Clev -4 vs Pitt
• Det -10 vs Chi
• Miami -12 vs LVR
• Dallas/Car Over 41.5
• Ari/Hou Over 47.5
• Tenn/Jax Over 40

These are the Games I gave out on the NFL Prez Address. Lines are from Wed.

LAC -3 vs GB (43.5) - LAC

• Let me start by saying, I am not a fan of this GB team and frankly I think they are crap. I don’t believe in Jordan Love - their offense in general and their D is mediocre at best.
• Sure they are in the top half of the league in allowing points - which would seem to be good, if you didnt look at who they have played this year. Other than Det, this team has played the worst scoring teams in the league, including Pitt, Rams, Minny, Den, LVR, NO, Atl and Chicago. No wonder they have only allowed 20 points per game.
• When they did play a team that can actually score, they allowed 34 points against Det and even Minny put up 24.
• So yes, I am not a fan of their D - but their offense is way way way worse.
• They are in the bottom half of league in points scored at 19.9 - they are in the middle of the pack in passing yards, only a hair over 200 yards per game and are not doing so good in the running game either.
• On top of all that, they just lost to Pitt by 4 and have lost 5 of their last 6 games and many of those games were against bad teams.
• Now they face the Chargers who although having a bad record is NOT a bad football team. Frankly, I think they are the best value team in football right now and I also think they are going to go on a big run.
• The Chargers have one single weakness on their team - they struggle to stop the pass - well lucky for them GB cant throw the ball anyway.
• This Chargers team is just so much better than GB it is not even close. Plus it’s not like they have issues winning on the road, as they just beat the Jets on the road and won in Minny.
• This season is just about to get away from the Chargers and their crappy coach’s job is on the line.
• We are getting a small number here, as over 80% of the time a favourite  that wins covers -3.
• I have to believe this LA team is not going to go down without a fight. We saw them play great offensively against Det on Sunday and make 3 comebacks in that game.
• This is a team that has started slow every year and then gets on a big run.
• We are going to take the Chargers here at -3.
• Lean - LAC -3 vs GB

Pitt +4 vs Cle (37.5) - Clev

• I will bottom line this - in order for Pitt to cover +4, they might have to hold Cleveland to 13 points. That is how bad I think this Pitt offense is and even though they just put up 23 on GB and 20 on Tenn, they are now facing a monster of a D and I think they struggle to score 2 TDS the entire game.
• I know they beat Clev 26-22 in game 2 of the season - that was a long time ago and all Pitt did was put up 255 yards of total offense.
• I know Pitt jsut won their last 2 games, but they were against GB and Tenn and frankly that just doesn’t count to me.
• Cleveland on the other hand just beat Baltimore in Baltimore showing moxy, guts, the ability to make a comeback and a team that is well balanced on both sides of the ball.
• I fully understand that Deshawn might need a massage to get the kinks out of his game - but even with him playing crap or his back up playing crapper, they have put up 33, 27, 20 and 29 points in their last 4 games.
• If Cle puts up 27, 29 or 33 points in this game, they will cover this 4 by double digits.
• This is an absolutely crucial game for both teams as this division is so tough and you cannot lose to your division opponents. Well Cleveland has already lost to Pitt this year and they will not lose again - the only question is will they cover 4.
• Pitt has averaged 17 points per game, while Cleveland has averaged 24 points per game - that is a TD difference.
• Cleveland is #2 in the league in rushing the ball - Pitt is in the bottom half.
• Neither of these teams can throw the ball, yet again Cleveland is better in this category as well.
• When you look at the D - Clev even after letting Baltimore put up 31, is 6th in the league in preventing points - while Pitt is outside of the top 10. Rushing D has Cleveland 7th in the league, while Pitt is in the bottom 10 and passing D - Cleveland is #1 in all of football while Pitt is the 7th worst.
• These numbers are not even close - there is not one number on the D or O side of the ball that Pitt is better at - not one single thing.
• Furthermore Pitt has been out gained in every single game this season.
• We are taking the Browns here and happy to lay the 4
• Lean - Clev -4 over Pitt

Chi +10.5 vs Det (46.5) - Det

• I know who wants to lay 10 points against anyone - I do and frankly so should you as these bets are gold over the last few years. Bet you didn’t want to lay 16 on Dallas - should have.
• 16, 17, 13 - those are the points scored by the Bears in their last 3 games.
• 41 is the points scored on the Chargers by the Lions in their last game.
• Let me make this easy - the Lions average 27 points per game - the Bears average 20 and that is with Fields.
• The Lions are the 4th best passing team in the league - the Bears are the 4th best in division 4 ncaaf. Okay im giving Divison 4 a bad name - sorry guys - im sure you are all better than the Bears on offense.
• There is no category excluding sucking that the Bears are even close to the Lions on - this game has blowout written all over it.
• I love that the Bears actually won their last game - that means they are now out of bullets. You might have to go back to Walter Payton’s day to find the Bears winning 2 games in a row and they certainly won’t now.
• The Lions are putting up a minimum of 31 points on Sunday and since Fields went out, the Bears have put up more than 17 ONCE  and I don’t think they get over 17 in this game.
• I am not going to overthink this - I am not going to be scared of the points. This game has 34-17 written all over it.
• I do lean on the Over in this game, as I think Det will get almost there by themselves, but there is simply no reason to mess with a better bet - the Lions -10.
• I do feel sorry for all Bear fans - but need I remind them that at least they have the Cubs and the Sox and the Bulls and the Hawks and their amazing lasagna that calls itself pizza.
• Lean - Det -10 vs Chi

LVR +12 vs Mia (47.5)

• This will be short.
• Miami lost 48-20 to Buffalo and came back and beat the Giants by 15 - then they lost 31-17 to Philly and came back and beat the Pats by 14. Then they lost 21-14 to KC - and now they face the Raiders and I think we see a similar trend with them winning by more than 2 TDs.
• I like that the Raiders have made changes and we have seen them win 2 games in a row since then, but this is a team that will struggle to score points and when playing the Dolphins, that is the key to winning or even keeping the game close.
• I know it these big favourites aren’t appetizing to most - but if you actually look at the data, home teams that are double digit favs are the single best bet in football over the last 10 years.
• There is a reason Miami is giving so many points.
• I also think the bye week will really favour the Fins and I expect them to come out absolutely flying. I really like Miami 1st half as well and think they could be covering 11 by then.
• The bottom line here is Miami are going to get their points and I just don’t think we will see a lot of points from the Raiders.
• 31-17 seems like the right score to me with the Fins winning by 2 TDS.
• Lean - Miami -12 vs LVR

Dallas -10.5 vs Car (41.5) - Over

• I am still mad at myself for not taking the Over in the Dallas Giants game on Sunday - I was worried the Giants might only put up 3 points and as it turned out it made absolutely no difference - The Boys put up 49 points and this is the 2nd game in their last 3 that they have scored 43 or more.
• So let me bottom line this - there is no reason to think the Boys can’t cover the over 41 all by themselves - it is not like they are playing a team that has a defense.
• Sure, the Panthers held a pathetic Chi team to 16 and they did play great against Houston holding them to 13, but other than that - YIKES - In their last 5 games they have allowed 42 points on them twice.
• So here we have a game where the Boys have gone over 41.5 by themselves 2 out of 3 games and the Panthers have allowed over 41.5 twice in their last 5 games.
• With that said, I do think we will need some points form the Panthers to get this total over. I know their offense is a total disaster, but they have had over 13 points in every single game.
• If the Panthers score 13 again against the Boys have to put up 29 to get this over.
• In the Cowboys 10 games this year, they have go over 30 5 times and now they are playing one of the worst defenses in the league. I think it is totally realistic to think they Boys can get to 35 in this game and that means we need 7 points from the Panthers.
• Carolina has allowed an average of 27 points a game (3rd worst) - they are the 6th worst run stopping d and the 6th worst pass stopping D.
• Obviously with the line at -10.5, the bookmakers see a blowout and I think we get a 31-17 type of a football game - that is 48 points which is almost a TD more than the total. (Frankly I will be surprised if Dallas scores less than 34).
• Lean - Dall/Car Over 41.5

TB +10.5 vs SF (41.5) - Over

• Okay the SF bottom out is over and they are back being the best team in football.
• If you take out those 3 crappy games (all without Deebo), they have scored over 30 points in every game they played this season.
• SF is the 3rd best scoring team in football averaging 28 a game and I think those numbers are deflated - If Deebo was healthy they would be ahead of Miami and averaging closer to 34 points per game.
• SF are Top 10 in rushing and passing and frankly are impossible to stop.
• TB is okay on D - not incredible but they are in the top 10 in the league in stopping their opponents from scoring. Their big issue is stopping the pass, as they are the 2nd worst team in football at this. To be honest, I actually don’t care how good a D is when playing SF - its almost irrelevant as SF can score 30 on anyone in the league.
• So let’s bottom line this - I think SF gets at least 30 points again Sunday and that means we need 12 from TB to get over the total.
• Now TB has scored less than 12 twice this season 6 against Det and 11 against Philly, but they just put up 20 on Tenn, 37 on Houston and 18 against the Bills - and they are averaging 20 points per game.
• Now I know SF has a lights out D and held Jax to 3 points, but that is more of an aberration as they are allowing teams to score an average of 16 on them.
• With that said, I wouldn’t be surprised if SF gets to 34 points and with all the TB weapons on offense, I do think they get over 12 points.
• I see a 34-20 type of a game here with TB getting a late meaningless TD - but even before that TD, 34-13 still gets us over the total.
• We are playing this low total to the Over.
• 3% - TB/SF Over 41.5

Ariz +4.5 vs Hou (47.5)

• Here is what we know - Houston can score a ton and Arizona can’t play D - let’s start with Houston.
• WOW to CJ and this Houston team - sitting in a Wild Card spot and they just beat the Bengals in Cincy. They scored 30 against Cincy and 39 against TB in their last 2 games and are averaging over 24 points per game.
• Now they face the 5th worst D in football, allowing over 26 points per game. So if Houston averaged 24 points and were capable of scoring 30 and 39 against 2 better defenses, how many points are they putting up against this anemic Cardinal D - I think they get 30 easy - but let’s go with 30.
• That means we need 18 points from Arizona to get this over the total.
• On the entire year this Arizona team has averaged 17.6 points per game, but that is without Murray and I think he is an improvement from Dobbs and whoever.
• Murray and the Cards just put up 25 on Atlanta who has a pretty good D. Murray threw for 230 yards and they also got 122 yards on the ground.
• While Houston is lights out right now on offense, their D struggles. They are in the bottom half of the league in points allowed at 21.3 per game and they are in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed.
• I think we have one really bad d unit, one mediocre D unit, 1 team that can score 30 and has twice in a row and 1 team that can score especially with Murray back.
• 28-21 gets us over the total and I think we might see a game that gets into the mid 50s.
• 3% - Ariz/Houston Over 47.5

Ten +6.5 vs Jax (40)

• Not only do I think this is the 1st time in 2 years I am going to take a Tenn game Over - it is the 1st time in memory that all 4 of my Total bets on this show are Overs.
• Everyone is talking about what has happened to Jax’s offense and yes I understand they only put up 3 against SF. But the 5 games previous to that they scored 20, 31, 37, 25 and 23 points and are averaging over 21 points per game this season.
• Jax is in the top half of the league in points scored, rushing yards and passing yards.
• After such a dismal performance against SF, I think we see a great offensive performance Sunday, with Jax getting to 27 points. That means we need 14 from Tenn to get this game over.
• In Tennessee’s 9 games this year, they have gone over 14 points 7 times and the only 2 games they were Under that total was against TB and Cleveland.
• Jax does not have a great D allowing 21.1 points per game. This Jax team has literally the 3rd worst pass D in all of football. Even Chicago has done better. Now normally this wouldn’t matter, but since Levis has take over at QB for the Titans, they are throwing the ball more. Even against TB, in a disastrous effort, Levis still threw for 200 yards.
• The bottom line here is we have 2 mediocre defenses at best, and 1 really good offense and 1 middle of the pack offense. This line is super low and even a 23-20 game gets us over the total.
• I am confident we are going to see Jax get to 27 points this game and if that happens, this game goes over.
• Tenn/Jax Over 40