Recent Play Details

3% Take North Carolina State (#337)

My clients and I have cashed back-2-back-2-back winners supporting NC State over the past three weeks. The Wolfpack have pulled off outright upsets against Miami-FL and Clemson, and they won on the road last week as short favorites at Wake Forest.  Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up last week:

“NC State has been going with MJ Morris at QB in recent weeks, but Morris decided to use his redshirt this week, so the Wolfpack are transitioning back to Brennan Armstrong behind center on Saturday.  I watched Doeren’s press conference – there’s plenty of confidence and continuity going with their veteran senior at QB on Saturday, and it’s not like Morris was lighting up opposing defenses.  Just as importantly, this Wolfpack defense remains positively loaded; bad news for their struggling foe.”

Here's a Dave Doeren quote from prior to the Miami game that stands out to me; talking about why the Wolfpack have been able to gut out tight games all season:

 “I told the team that. You need to be ready for a one-possession, four-quarter game. That's what this game has been the last several times it's been played. Different coaches on the sideline for some of those games, but definitely bringing that up to their attention. It's going to be a tough game. A lot ACC games are that way…. I think they know where I'm coming from. There's been an edge to them for sure. The proof will be in our performance Saturday, but we've had a good week.”

Doeren’s track record in late season road games is truly impressive.  Over the last six seasons, the Wolfpack have won SU/ATS at Wake, North Carolina (twice), Florida State, Louisville and Syracuse; 6-3 SU and ATS in nine November road games.   And that’s not even including earlier season ACC road SU wins at BC, Pitt and Virginia. Plain and simple – we trust Doeren’s teams on the highway.

Virginia Tech has certainly gotten better as this season has progressed, but they’ve been feasting on the bottom of the ACC, notching wins against Pitt, Wake, Syracuse and BC. Those four teams are a combined 7-20 SU in ACC play, with four of those seven wins coming in battles when they faced off against one another.  Last year’s game was decided by a single point – bad news for the favorite – and my numbers clearly show that we’re looking at a ‘False Favorite’ scenario this week.  Take NC State.

Line Parameter: 3% at +1 or higher, 2% at pk or if the Wolfpack become the favorite