Recent Play Details

3% Take Oregon State (#380). 

Here are the parameters for a system that has cashed at a 74% clip in college football over the last 25 years, courtesy of Ralph Michaels from Wagertalk.com.  Teams that are 7-0 or better – undefeated teams, like Washington – who are underdogs against an opponent that is above .500 but has suffered at least one loss – are woeful ATS, cashing at a 26% clip. 

This is most assuredly an angle that passes the ‘does it make sense’ test.  The pressure builds on undefeated teams as the season progresses, and November can be a very tricky time for undefeated teams hitting the highway before their annual rivalry affair. When they’re underdogs against a quality foe – a team looking up at them in the standings, but still with a winning record; good teams – the undefeated underdog is an underdog for good reason.

Oregon State fits all those parameters this week.  How strong is the Beavers home field in Corvallis?  They’re 5-0 SU at home this year; 17-1 SU at home since the start of the 2021 campaign.  They’re also 17-1 ATS, the lone ATS defeat coming as 24.5 point favorites in a game they won by ‘only’ 19.  This is the strongest homefield in college football right now; not many seem to be noticing. 

Washington is under a ton of pressure, their head coach is fielding offers from some true ‘marquee’ jobs that have come open, and they lost last time on this field.  The Huskies have been an overvalued commodity in recent weeks; 6-0 SU, but only 1-4-1 ATS in their last six contests.  Oregon State has been an undervalued commodity in this series: 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, all games decided by less than a TD. This is Jonathan Smith’s best Beavers team of the bunch……  Take Oregon State.

Line Parameter: 3% at -2.5 or lower, 2% at -3 or higher