Recent Play Details

CFB SATURDAY NOV 18

3% SOUTH CAROLINA ML -125 vs KENTUCKY - Line is good to -135 or -2.

Amazing to me that Kentucky continues to be this valued in the market. Let's look at just their most recent four games, Kentucky has struggled, posting a 1-4 SU  and a 1-4 ATS. This seasons numbers show that Offensively, the Wildcats are average at best. Defensively, they fare slightly better and that puts them on a similar footing to South Carolina.

However, in this game, the Gamecocks have a significant advantage in this matchup, especially through their quarterback, Spencer Rattler, who has an impressive 71% completion rate this season. While Kentucky has a strong run defense, South Carolina's pass-oriented offense, which leans towards passing 60% of the time, is likely to have a ton of success. Rattler, who has always played better against mediocre or weaker pass defenses, has struggled against great pass defenses like Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Missouri. However, against  UNC, Mississippi State, Florida, Jacksonville State, and Vanderbilt, he has been great. Given that Kentucky's pass defense is below average, Rattler is in line to have a huge game.

When you consider that this game is at home for South Carolina, it makes no sense to me that the market has priced this as a pick em game. Give me the better QB at home in this one.