Recent Play Details

Buffalo -7 vs Jets

I know there has been a lot of money coming in on the Jets this week and I get it. The Bills have fallen apart and can’t seem to get out of their own way. When they lose games, it’s not the other team that beats them; they beat themselves. So why am I putting 5% of my bankroll on them this Sunday.

Let me start by saying, I think the Bills are a stock that is at rock bottom and ready for a nice fat climb. I also think the Jets are a stock that is too high and I want to sell on them. One of the best angles I use when betting is what I call a bottom out situation. After that horrible and embarrassing loss to the Broncos, I believe the Bills just came out of their bottom out spot. That was a terrible game they played and even though they completely dominated the game from start to finish, no-one wins with 800 turnovers and most on the wrong side of the field. I think we have found a perfect spot to bet the Bills. BUT this is not just a bet on the Bills, but it is also a bet against the Jets offense. When I watched the last Jets game, I saw Zach Wilson running for his life, being sacked play after play, being pressured consistently and that was from the Raiders. The Raiders are in the middle of the league in sacks, while Buffalo is the 2nd best sack team in football. They should have a field day with this Jets Oline and live in Zach Wilson’s house all day. Not only that, but we saw Denver get the ball possession after possession in Buffalo territory and get held to 3 and out over and over again. If Denver struggles to move the ball on the Bills, I think the Jets are going to have a nightmare offensive day. I honestly cannot see the Jets scoring more than 13 points on Sunday and although the Jets D is good, the only team that can stop the Bills offense is the Bills offense. They are going to get theirs period. If the Raiders can put up 16 on this great Jets D, surely the Bills can get to 24. If the Chargers can put up 27 on the Jets, surely, the Bills can match that.

The bottom line here, is I have a really good football team with weapons and talent everywhere at the bottom of their market value, playing a Jets team that is at the top of their market value.

Also for the record, the Bills D is better than the Jets D. They are 5th in the league in preventing points, to the Jets 7th. The Jets literally have the 2nd worst run d in all of football in yards allowed per game. The Jets are better at stopping the pass than the Bills, but keep in mind, the Bills play higher scoring games where there is more passing (and yes that affects the run d as well).

So here we have the Bills with a better D, the Bills with a MUCH MUCH MUCH better O, the Bills playing at home, the Bills in revenge mode from their prime time loss to the Jets, the Bills coming off an embarrassing loss and the Bills playing for their playoff lives.

I think we see a 2 TD or more score difference when all is said and done and wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills D gets more points than the Jets O. I predict a 27-13 type of a game and I would be amazed if the Jets even get to 13.