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Browns (1PM ET CBS) – Ravens get it done easily to kick off NFL Week 11 with a bang and I’ll stay in the AFC North for another BEST BET when the Cleveland Browns take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. 

Going to play against what I believe to be an overreaction to the Deshaun Watson news.  Since it was announced Watson would miss the rest of the season this line has moved 4 points but I disagree there since I don’t think the Steelers are even close to the football team the Browns are this season.  The Steelers have won games (which is big for my season long Steelers win total) but they have had uncanny luck of catching teams at the right time. You could say they are catching Cleveland at the right time here, with the Browns losing their starting quarterback, but I don’t think that means the Browns won’t win this game.  The Browns will hand Dorian Thompson-Robinson his second NFL start, I think he will be better prepared here than when he was thrown into the fire against the Ravens and I also think DTR’s mobility will mask some of the issues Cleveland has right now on their offensive line. Pittsburgh is stout defensively, but the Steelers could be down as many as FOUR starters on defense in this game which could serve as an equalizer here.  Sprinkle in the “unknown” of having DTR under center and I make the Browns a deserving home favorite in this game.

Pittsburgh was able to squeak out yet another win last week thanks to a couple of big mistakes from Jordan Love but I don’t see the Steelers being as fortunate here.  The Steelers managed to rush for a whopping 205 yards against Green Bay but I can’t see the likes of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren having that type of success against the Browns excellent run defense.  Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the league so, not only will the Steelers struggle to run the ball, it’s going to put embattled Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett under pressure to make plays.  Cleveland has an outstanding pass rush and gets pressure on opposing quarterbacks so quick (and good) decision making is vital and that’s just not Pickett right now. Pickett doesn’t have a great offensive line and he’s just not “great” at the position yet so I can’t see him having a big game here.  Pittsburgh has been outgained in almost every game this season, it’s commendable that the Steelers have found ways to win but that type of luck is going to run out and on the road against a very good Browns team is likely where it does. 

Had the masses not seen DTR struggle back in Week 4 against an elite Ravens team my guess is this line move wouldn’t have been as drastic as Thompson-Robinson balled out against backups in the preseason.  The Steelers possess another strong defense but there will be some reserves in the mix here and DTR has had months of practice since to improve and all sorts of time to prepare for this game so I expect better from DTR here.  I’m also willing to play some “law of averages” that things start to go against the Steelers.  If we are going by stats alone Pittsburgh should probably be no better than a 4-5 team but they have been EXTREMELY fortunate getting every bounce to enter play at a very inflated 6-3.  When you factor in all the intangibles (Steelers defense banged up, Steelers regression imminent, DTR likely better than he was Week 4, DTR not as big of a drop off from Watson as the line move suggests and the Browns elite defense against Steelers suspect offense) I absolutely love the Browns here.  Depending how a very busy day on Saturday goes I might even upgrade this to a MAX.  Play on Browns -120 for 4% (or 4 units)