Recent Play Details

3% MLP Houston (1:00 ET) and Buffalo (4:25 ET): The odds we’re getting on these two to simply win this week are better than a standard two-team, six-point teaser. Now part of that is Houston is only laying 5 (as of press time), but I’ll jump on the opportunity. 

Some will make the case that the Texans have hit their peak in the market, coming off the thrilling 30-27 win in Cincinnati last week. I’ll argue they remain vastly undervalued. The game shouldn’t have even been that close last week as they outgained the Bengals 544-380 and averaged 7.4 yards per play. Three uncharacteristic turnovers from the Texans, two of them fumbles in the red zone and another a bad CJ Stroud INT, is what kept Cincy in that game. Stroud has been sensational though, throwing for 350+ yards with a GW drive in B2B weeks. He leads the NFL in passing yards per game. If not for two last-second FGs, Houston would be on a 7-game SU win streak coming into Sunday. As it stands, they are 5-2 SU with the two losses coming by a total of 4 points. I think this very likely will be a playoff team in the AFC. Meanwhile, I’d argue that it’s Arizona coming in a bit overvalued after QB Kyler Murray’s return led to a home win over the inept Falcons. The Cardinals are still a bottom five team in my eyes and they have lost eight straight on the road (0-4 ATS L4). I know the Texans have been better as underdogs this year and did lose outright at Carolina. But they’re at home this week and all we need is a SU win. I don’t think Arizona will be able to run the ball very effectively here (Texans have held five straight opponents under 100 yards on the ground) and HC DeMeco Ryans knows Murray from his time as the DC for the 49ers. 

Moving to Jets-Bills, I (incorrectly) thought Monday night might be the bottom of the market on the Bills, but thanks to some unconscionable mistakes they lost outright at home to the Broncos, 24-22, thanks to a last second FG. Four turnovers were bad enough. But getting flagged for PI on the final drive and then 12-men on the field for the GW FG was just sad. It was the first time in nearly eight years that a team blew a lead on the final drive due to 30+ yards in penalties. OC Ken Dorsey was fired, but I’m not sure the offense (save for the turnovers) is the problem here. The Bills still rank 3rd in DVOA on offense and 1st in success rate! Defense has been an issue though, because of injuries. But this week, the Bills get a break by facing Zach Wilson and the Jets, who have not scored a TD in the L2 games. Buffalo HAS to win this game or their playoff hopes are dead (next 3 games are: PHI, KC, DAL). Keep in mind that the Bills are the first team since 1981 to be +75 (or better) in point differential and NOT have a winning record through 10 weeks. This is a revenge spot for a Week 1 loss where the Bills outgained the Jets, but lost in OT on a punt return TD. I like the home team to win here. 3% MLP Houston and Buffalo (Play to -135)