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St Mary’s (9:30PM ET ESPN Plus) – A huge 3-0 Thursday sweep gets us going back in the right direction and we have all the momentum into the weekend.  I’ve had this spot circled since before the season, now we are getting the perfect bounce back spot so let’s add the extra unit here when the St Mary’s Gaels take on the San Diego State Aztecs at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Let’s talk about what happened to St Mary’s last time out first because I think it’s an important place to start this handicap.  St Mary’s built the 11 point halftime lead you would expect them to have at home against Weber State but came out ice cold in the second half to shockingly lose 61-57 on their home floor.  It was the typical “took a team for granted” performance, in the second half St Mary’s started launching threes and couldn’t buy one, finishing 5 for 27 from distance for the game.  St Mary’s also wasn’t as crisp as they usually are, the Gaels turned the ball over 13 times and before they could snap out of it Weber State had a late lead and eventually the game.  That result now overshadows what St Mary’s has done well, the first half of the Weber State game was vintage St Mary’s and they still outrebounded the Wildcats 36-22 for the game.  The prior game St Mary’s never lost focus and destroyed a solid (shorthanded but still a good team) New Mexico team in a game where the Gaels won all the stats and was never close.  That’s the type of game St Mary’s will need to play tonight but I expect them to do that because there’s going to be no “loss of focus” here.  St Mary’s won’t be going through the motions because on the opposing sideline will be last year’s National Champion Runner-Up San Diego State.  I fully expect San Diego State to contend in the Mountain West again this season, but I’ll be shocked if the Aztecs don’t take a small step back overall after their massive run last March.  I have St Mary’s as the better of these two teams and I think simply needing the Gaels to win on a neutral floor is worthy of a 5% MAX BET here. 

I’m not fully in on San Diego State, the Aztecs lose a lot of the depth that made them so tough last season and I think we see San Diego State drop a few games early while Brian Dutcher integrates the new pieces into this team. San Diego does have plenty back, notably senior guards Darrion Trammell and Lamont Butler, but these two will be remembered for what they did in March and not for being somewhat average for most of the season up until that point.  Neither averaged double figures last season, the only one that did for this San Diego State team was Matt Bradley and he’s one of the three “key” players San Diego State lost.  Forward Jay Pal averaged double figures for Campbell last season, he was projected to start for San Diego State prior to the season but has been a role player up to this point and not at all a scoring threat.  Jaedon Ledee has been ridiculous to this point, averaging 25 points per game through three games but I expect St Mary’s to have game planned for him and they have an answer in 7 foot center Mitchell Saxen.  St Mary’s also has three 7 footers on their bench so protecting the rim shouldn’t be an issue for St Mary’s which means the scoring will have to come out of the San Diego State backcourt and that hasn’t been a strong point for the Aztecs this season. 

San Diego State already failed their first big test as the Aztecs left Provo with a 74-65 loss to BYU.  In that game San Diego State showed some of their flaws, the Aztecs went 5 for 18 from three and were outrebounded by wide margin.  I was more worried about St Mary’s defensively than offensively entering the season because the Gaels lost two elite defenders in Kyle Bowen and Logan Johnson.  It’s important to note in the loss that it wasn’t St Mary’s defense that was the problem, the Gaels held Weber State to 61 points and allowed just 58 in the win over New Mexico. I truly believe the poor result against Weber State was a lack of focus because it requires precision for St Mary’s to run the offense the way Randy Bennett has it set up.  It requires sophomore Aidan Mahaney to pull all the strings and he simply wasn’t good enough going 4 for 14 and scoring just 11 points while committing four turnovers. Mahaney is a superstar, he’s not going to have many bad games and I’m willing to bet on a Mahaney bounce back.  If he’s back to his usual self here so is the St Mary’s offense and it will be enough for the Gaels to outlast San Diego State on a neutral floor here.  Play on St Mary’s -120 for 5% (or 5 units)