Recent Play Details

4% Chicago (1:00 ET): This is more of a “situational” than a pure “numbers” play. Don’t like the spot for the Lions, who are coming off a wild 41-38 road win over the Chargers (great in-game decision making from HC Dan Campbell) and have the Thanksgiving game (vs. the Packers) on deck. Meanwhile, the Bears are off a “mini-bye” (played last Thursday) and have QB Justin Fields set to return. The Bears also actually WON last week, outlasting the lousy Panthers 16-13 on TNF. This is a division game (NFC North) where we’re still getting more than a TD and that will always be attractive to me. 

No one will ever confuse the Bears’ Matt Eberflus with a good NFL HC, but his team has already matched LY’s win total. That wasn’t exactly the goal coming into 2023, but the expectations were probably unrealistic. The Bears actually managed to go 2-2 SU with rookie Tyson Bagent at QB. No matter what anyone says, Fields remains a clear upgrade over Bagent as he’d thrown for 617 yards and 8 TDs in the two games prior to getting injured. Obviously, Fields also brings an increased rushing dynamic into the equation, something the Lions know all too well. In the two meetings last season, Fields ran for 279 yards against them. From all reports, Fields looked good in practice this week. 

Now Detroit may be well on their way to winning the NFC North but last week was a reminder that their defense remains a liability. Six of their nine opponents this season have scored at least 20 with three scoring 37. So I expect Fields to have success in his return. Meanwhile, the Bears’ defense has been surprisingly better as of late, especially in the secondary, and has allowed 24 points or less in five of the last six games. Only once in the last 10 meetings have the Lions beaten the Bears by more than four points. This is the second largest spread the Lions have had to lay with Jared Goff at QB. The market has come in on the road dog and I agree! Take the points. 4% Chicago (Play to +7.5)