(4%) AIR FORCE. The Falcons cruised along until they met Army. Facing a fellow service academy, the Knights rose to the occasion and scored the upset. That was a tough pill to swallow for the Falcons as it spoiled their dreams of an undefeated season. Perhaps still thinking about what could have been, they proceeded to get upset again, at Hawaii, the next game. No more crying over the Army loss. The Falcons are back home and they've got a very important game against UNLV waiting for them. The Rebels deserve a lot of credit for a great season. They're definitely better than they've been in recent seasons. That said, it's been a pretty easy schedule. They've played two tough road games (Michigan and Fresno State) and they lost them both. Their other road games came against New Mexico, UTEP and Nevada. They've faced the likes of Bryant and avoided Boise State. So, yes, they deserve credit but perhaps not quite as much as some are ready to give them. In fairness, I suppose one could say the same about Air Force. That said, this is a loaded and legit Air Force team. They were dominant defensively last season and they returned eight starters on defense this season. They're allowing just 15.4 ppg and only 245.3 yards per game. That's third best in the country, behind only Michigan and Penn State. I expect that dominant defense to be the difference. AF has won five straight meetings and 10 of the past 12. They'll bounce back and continue that series dominance on Saturday. *good to -180, reduce to 3% if higher than -165