3% Take Oklahoma City (#519)
Count me in the ‘OKC believers’ category! The Thunder are clearly the real deal; a team that could realistically be ‘this year’s version’ of last year’s Sacramento Kings – from out of the playoffs to a Top 4 seed. They’re playing winning basketball night after night, 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five games; with a full complement of young talent surrounding emerging superstar Shai Gilgeous Alexander. They’ve shown they can win on the road, notching SU wins as underdogs at Cleveland and at Phoenix. They’ve shown they can build and maintain margins – each of their last five victories has come by eight points or more.
OKC lost a hard fought two point game to Golden State at home earlier this month; a game where Gilgeous Alexander didn’t play; Steph Curry and Draymond Green did. In the rematch tonight, the Thunder can get their revenge with SGA on the floor; Green and Curry off it -- Green suspended and Curry out with knee troubles. Without that duo, the Warriors are a lottery team, not a championship contender. They’re 1-5 SU in their last six games, beating only the lowly Pistons, but the betting markets have been slow to catch up! Let’s take advantage here and ride the hot team in a cheap pointspread range against the cold one. Take the Thunder.
Line Parameter: 3% at -3 or lower, 2% at -3.5 or higher