Recent Play Details

3% Baltimore Team Total Over (8:15 ET): I know that the word “Over” is basically tantamount to poison when it comes to these NFL primetime games, which have produced an amazing 62-29 Under record since the start of last season, including 25-7 this season and 11 straight winners! But this Bengals’ defense can be had. Take away some fortunate turnovers and Lou Anarumo’s stop unit is near the bottom of the league in both EPA per play and success rate. Last week, at home against the Texans, the Bengals’ defense allowed 544 total yards. They really should have lost by a much wider margin than 30-27. 

Meanwhile, the Ravens are coming off a stunning home loss to the Browns where they blew a 2 TD lead in the 4Q. Blame a pick six for that, although the Ravens had one of those themselves early in the game. Still, when you lead by two scores most of the game at home, that should be a win. It’s rather remarkable this Baltimore team is only 7-3 SU as they’ve trailed for LESS THAN 30 MINUTES of actual game time this season! That’s the third fewest time spent trailing through 10 games over the L40 years. The top two teams both went 10-0 SU! The Ravens are definitely better than their record. I actually still have them power-rated as the top team in the league. 

Thus I am showing some value with the Ravens in this spot as I’ve thought the Bengals have been overrated by the market for the past several weeks (faded them vs. Houston). But we do need to respect Joe Burrow’s ATS record as a dog here and Baltimore is dealing with some key injuries. (So is Cincy). I just think that the Ravens, who average 30 PPG at home, can go Over their team total against a Bengals’ defense that allowed 7.4 yards per play last week and has permitted the third most red zone opportunities in the league this season. The Ravens have scored 31+ points four straight weeks including against the Browns’ top-rated defense. 3% Baltimore Team Total Over (Play to 24.5)