Recent Play Details

5% Oregon State (7:30 ET): Washington is 10-0 SU and #5 in the latest CFP rankings. The Huskies almost certainly control their own destiny to get to the playoff as they’d move past the loser of next week’s Ohio State-Michigan game into the top four. That’s IF UW wins out, which is a big if. There can be no denying the fact that Kalen DeBoer’s team has been “living dangerously” as of late with four of the last six wins coming by seven points or less. There was even a stretch at the end of October where the Huskies were outgained in three consecutive games, two of those coming against Arizona State and Stanford! Now they were the better team against both USC and Utah the L2 weeks and probably should have even covered against the latter. But this week comes the stiffest test of the season. 

Since the start of the 2021 season, Oregon State is a phenomenal 17-1 SU and ATS at home. Not only are they the most profitable home team in all of College Football during that time, the Beavers have covered by an average of nearly 10 points per game here in Corvallis! So while they’ve already faced Oregon (at home), this is in fact UW’s toughest test yet. It’s a rivalry that’s been dominated by the Huskies (10-1 SU L11) but the last three were decided by a total of 12 points and OSU won the last one here, 27-24. It’s not hyperbole to say this is the “biggest game ever” at Reser Stadium and I should also note that home favorites have had a huge edge this season in Top 25 matchups, going 20-2 SU and 16-5-1 ATS. The Beavers being favored here is obviously a very big deal! 

We all know about Heisman candidate Michael Penix Jr and the Washington offense. Oregon State can’t totally shut them down, but they can definitely slow them down. Here at home, the Beavers allow just 12.8 points per game. Last year in Seattle, Penix threw for “just” 298 yards on 52 attempts and remember the Huskies trailed going into the 4Q and needed a last second FG for the win. When they’re on offense, look for OSU to run the ball effectively with Damien Martinez behind what is an excellent line. And DJ Uiagalelei seems to be peaking at the right time with a 12-0 TD-INT ratio over the L5 games. OSU quietly has a Top 20 offense in both scoring (37.9 PPG) and yards per play. The Washington defense is bad as it ranks 122nd against the pass and 67th in yards per play. I’ll call for OSU to end Washington’s unbeaten season and thus cause chaos across the CFP landscape. 5% Oregon State (Play to -3)