Recent Play Details

(Upgraded to a 4%)

4% Florida (7:30 ET): It’s “sell high” time this week on Missouri, who the market moved against “sharply” last week for its home game against Tennessee. But just when we think we’ve got the middle of the SEC East pecking order figured out, there’s a curveball thrown. Mizzou clobbered Tennessee 36-7 with a 530-350 yardage edge. It was actually just a 13-7 game at half. Now the Tigers are ranked #9 by the CFP committee and that’s a little “rich” for my blood. I get that they have only two SU losses and those were both by single digits against LSU and Georgia. But it’s a little hard for me to believe they should be laying double digits to Florida the week after being a home dog to Tennessee. (Florida beat Tennessee remember, a 5% winner on this end). 

Yes, Mizzou is 7-1 ATS its L8 games and Florida is 3-7 ATS this season. But let us not forget about Billy Napier as an underdog. The Gators HC is on a 19-8 ATS run when catching points, going back to his Louisiana days. That includes 8-3 when getting 10 or more and 5-1 when facing a Top 15 opponent. This is probably a good time to point out that Florida needs one more win to get bowl eligible. With unbeaten Florida State on the schedule next week, this is the better shot. Meanwhile, even with it being the last home game of the season, this is a total letdown spot for Mizzou after a big double revenge win over Tennessee last week. This will be only the second time the Tigers have been favored to beat Florida and the lone SU win in the series over the L4 years came by just a single point in OT. Florida was an 11-point favorite LY in Gainesville (won 24-17). 

Say what you will about Florida QB Graham Mertz, he’s still top five in the country in completion percentage (73.3) and has thrown for 2,720 yards with an 18-2 TD-INT ratio. The Gators also still have a pretty good defense that can at least limit Brady Cook and company. That task will be made easier if Tigers WR Luther Burden continues to be hampered by an ankle injury. I thought that last week’s 52-35 final at LSU was a little misleading when you consider Florida led in the 3Q and was only down 38-35 with less than 10 minutes remaining. Take the points. 4% Florida (Play to +10)