Recent Play Details

4% Houston (4:00 ET): It was “sell-high” time last week on Oklahoma State as the Cowboys - who entered in on a 5-0 SU and ATS win streak that included an upset win over rival Oklahoma in (perhaps) the final Bedlam game - got taken “behind the woodshed” in a humiliating 45-3 loss at UCF. The Pokes never stood a chance as they turned it over four times and were down 24-0 at the half. Eventually, they were outgained 592-277. I said it last week and I’ll repeat it here: OSU was an underdog four times during that five-game win streak. They still aren’t a team I’d want to lay points with, especially a touchdown on the road. I thought it was pretty ridiculous the CFP committee had Mike Gundy’s team ranked 15th going into last week. They aren’t even in my Top 40 now. 

This week, OSU travels to face another Big 12 newbie (Houston). Like the three other newcomers to the conference, the Cougars have been struggling. Their two Big 12 wins have been by a combined three points, one of them (WVU) a result of a Hail Mary. Last week was a very disappointing 24-14 loss to Cincinnati here at home. On the bright side, that result is probably what’s giving us such nice value backing the Cougars this week. I think it’s a little odd that a team that was only getting 8.5 points at Texas Tech is now getting 7 at home vs. Oklahoma State. Something else to consider is that Houston now needs to win out in order to become bowl eligible. So you know they’ll be motivated, especially with this being the final home game of the season. The program will also be honoring the former players who just tragically passed away in a car accident last weekend. 

Back to the field, the Oklahoma State defense has allowed 470+ yards in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, the UH defense has played relatively well of late, including 10 tackles for loss against Cincy. That unit has been much stronger against the run than the pass, which is good as Oklahoma State features RB Ollie Gordon. After being the offense’s bell cow during the win streak, Gordon was held to 25 yards on 12 carries last week. As I wrote about last week, this OSU team was due for some regression as they’d been enjoying tremendous fortune when it came to fourth down and turnover variance. The Cowboys still have just one Big 12 road win and, honestly, I can’t believe they are ranked. But that’s a good thing for us. Top 25 teams favored by 7 or more against a conference opponent are 0-8 ATS if off a SU loss by 35+ points! 4% Houston (Play to +6)