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4% Miami FL (12:00 ET): At first glance, this may not seem like an ideal spot to back “The U.” Miami is coming off a close loss to rival Florida State (27-20 as 14-point underdogs) and now faces #10 Louisville (9-1 SU), who will be looking to clinch a spot (against Florida State) in the ACC Championship Game. Furthermore, after benching QB Tyler Van Dyke for last week’s game, Emory Williams got hurt against FSU, so now it’s back to Van Dyke for the ‘Canes. That all being said, I still believe this is a good Miami team that is more than capable of winning here. 

Let's start by discussing Louisville’s road woes. They are 0-4 ATS away from home this season as well as 7-16-1 ATS on the highway going back to 2018. Remember that the Cardinals’ lone loss of 2023 came at Pitt, a game we faded them, and Pitt is now just a 2-8 SU team. It was by no means easy for L’ville last Thursday at home vs. another 2-8 SU team (Virginia) as they needed two late touchdowns just to get the 31-24 SU win as a 20-point home favorite. L’ville was outgained in that game as well. While they did beat Notre Dame 33-20 (at home) in the middle of the season, the Cardinals really don’t have any other “impressive” wins on their resume and let’s also not forget they drew the Irish at the end of a brutal scheduling stretch, were at home and +4 in turnovers. 

Despite Miami's 6-4 SU record, I don't have them power rated that much lower than Louisville, so I’m not at all surprised by this line. Louisville is certainly “overrated” by the CFP committee at #10. Miami has faced the tougher schedule and has wins over Texas A&M and Clemson, who I still consider to be Top 20 teams. The Hurricanes also had the total yards edge in three of their four losses, including LW vs. FSU! Going back to Van Dyke out of necessity does not bother me as he threw 4 TD passes in a game vs. North Carolina and obviously has plenty of experience. The Hurricanes' offense scored 31+ in five of the first six games this season and that was with Van Dyke as the starter. However, I think the real key here could be the Miami defense which is 33rd in EPA and 19th against the run. In addition to struggling with UVA and losing outright at Pitt, let’s also not forget L’ville won by only 3 at NC State (who was still starting Brennan Armstrong) and by 7 over lowly Indiana (game was played in Indianapolis). 4% Miami (Play to -2.5)