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5% Big Ticket: Take Atlanta – Detroit OVER (#565-566) (Over 230)

There is some concern over Trae Young’s availability for the Hawks this evening; it is listed as questionable (personal, not injury-related).  First, I expect Young to play.  Second, I love this Over whether Young suits up or not.  It’s not like the Hawks are going to slow down their pace or start playing defense, even if their point guard sits out.

Atlanta head coach Quin Snyder wants to play fast – extremely fast.  The Hawks rank #2 in the NBA in the fastest pace through their first nine games of the season – only Indiana plays faster.  But Snyder was not pleased with their performance in a home loss to an injury-depleted Heat team in their last game over the weekend.  His quote: “We had some good looks we didn’t take.  If you get those, you have to take them.”  Trae Young’s quote: “We’ve just got to shoot the ball.  When we catch the ball, shoot it.  Don’t hesitate.” Those are clearly ‘Over’ quotes for this bettor, with or without Young’s availability (he's been ruled out tonight).

The Pistons, too, are in the top half of the NBA in pace rating.  Like Atlanta (4-2 to the Over in their last six contests), Detroit is 5-1 to the Over in their last six ballgames – the markets haven’t caught up with the fast pace for either squad just yet.  Pistons point guard Cade Cunningham is coming off a rough game against Chicago, scoring a season-low ten points on 4-15 shooting, primed for a bounceback effort here. And both teams rank in the bottom third of the NBA in defensive rating – we can expect both pace AND shot making this evening.

Last year’s four meetings between these two teams produced 236, 235, 248, and 231 points – three Overs and a push.  Expect more of the same tonight.  

Big Ticket: Take the OVER—Line Parameter: 5% at 232 or lower, 4% at 232.5 or higher.