Recent Play Details

3% Take Portland (#573)

I could do this write-up in six words: “Utah can’t be laying minus six.”

The Jazz have one win in ten games by more than six points – at home, against the worst team in the Western Conference (Memphis), with the Grizz on the tail end of a long, miserable road trip.  They’re 0-2 SU and ATS coming off a win, like the one they notched in the rematch against the Grizzlies to end their own road trip this past weekend.  This pointspread is a full four points higher than any spread they’ve been asked to lay all year.  The Jazz rank #30 out of 30 NBA teams in defensive efficiency – even the Spurs and Pacers are playing more defense than Utah so far this season.  Without injured low post stud Walker Kessler, I can’t expect the Jazz defensive numbers to improve dramatically anytime soon. Meanwhile, Portland ranks #9 in defensive efficiency, allowing ten fewer points per 100 possessions than the Jazz. 

The Blazers have suffered through an early season barrage of injuries.  They’re without rookie point guard Scoot Henderson and young shooting guard Anfernee Simons.  The result of those injuries is more playing time for Chauncey Billups veteran core, like the frontcourt trio of DeAndre Ayton, Jerami Grant and Matisse Thybulle.  Instead of developing youngsters, Billups is being forced to play vets – a relatively good thing for the Blazers, short term.  It’s not like Shaeden Sharpe and Skylar Mays can’t handle additional backcourt playing time – Mays had ten assists against the Lakers on Sunday; Sharpe poured in 19 points.

The Blazers have already notched SU wins on the highway at Toronto and Detroit.  In two games on their current road trip, they lost by only 3 at Sacramento and by 6 at LA against the Lakers; staying competitive right through the final buzzer.  They’re live dogs again tonight in Utah, a court where they won in SU fashion (+5 or higher both times) in both meetings last year.  Take the Blazers.

Line Parameter: 3% at +6 or higher, 2% at +5.5 or lower