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In the Main Event of UFC 295, Alex Pereira faces Jiri Prochaska…

Fantastic match up which I believe highly favors our guy Poatan. The first glaring red flag on Jiri is being shelved for roughly a year and a half due to a brutal shoulder injury. Ring rust is real and out of action that long plus healing is a lot of time not sharpening your tools. While Jiri's been on the road to recovery not training, Alex Pereira continues elevating all around strengthening his overall skill set and coming off a victory over former champion Jan Blachowicz earning this title shot. Not only is the injury a possible concern on the Jiri side but also upon his return he's facing the toughest opponent he's clearly ever faced. Now I'm not sure if this is a Hot Take… but Jiri's victories are slightly not as impressive as they once were viewed. Let's also not forget the absolute bottom of the barrel opposition Jiri faced in the MMA organization Rizin before coming over to the UFC. Facing guys like CB Dollaway, King Mo and Fabio Maldonado are a dumpster fire of past opponents. Very low level competition and in his UFC debut took on Volkan Oezdemir who's more of a one dimensional boxing heavy approach whom hurt Jiri early but was put away in round 2. Next he faced a once hype train who's completely fallen from grace in Dominick Reyes who's currently on a 0-4 run recently getting knocked out by Ryan Spann. Most recently he faced Glover Teixeira in an incredible back and forth war and although that was an amazing fight… let's not forget Glover was 43 years old debating retirement prior. What's telling is how Glover was able to rock and wobble Jiri multiple times on the feet and no offense to Glover and his striking, but if he can land clean so can Alex at a very high clip. Put that against Pereira's recent run of opponents and it's not even close. Sparking out current champion Sean Strickland in round 1, next knocking out Israel Adesanya then dropping the belt back to Izzy then beating former champion Jan Blackowicz in a tough match up. Much tougher sledging for Alex and has been very successful against top tier talent. Add in Glover recently fought Jiri adds another layer to this favoring Poatan. Not saying this is a massive difference maker but it sure will help Alex and Glover form a plan knowing how Jiri feels and moves in the cage. Stylistically speaking, there are definitely some holes in Jiri's stand up primarily in his striking defense. Yes he's long, rangy, very unorthodox footwork and stance switching. Issue is his hands aren't always in the right position defending counters or able to slide out of the way of damage. Walking forward with your hands down can work against lower level fighters but it's a kamikaze mission against BY FAR the best striker Jiri has ever faced. Even in the past when Jiri wins via KO there's some suspect moments he gets clipped or leaves himself available to be hit. Believe Pereira has the power, precise striking and distance management to get the win and even put Jiri to sleep.   

5% Max Play: Alex Pereira (-145)