Recent Play Details

I discussed this game on First Pitch and you can find the replay of that show here:

First Pitch (Monday): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYvIEux9gnw

The Twins fit the profile of the type of team I want to fade down the stretch, a “top” team that doesn't have a ton to play for in the role of big favorite.

The goal here is to get the opposition (in this case the Reds) with the run head start at a cheaper price than we should be getting and I think that's what's happening here.

The Twins have all but wrapped up the AL Central so they come into this one in an anti-climactic spot on the road without their head coach as Rocco Baldelli will be away from the team tonight with his wife ready to give birth.  Minnesota is 36-39 on the road this season and 34-36 against teams with a sub .500 record so it's been profitable in general to play against the Twins away from Target Field and should be profitable here.

Another reason for a “let down” is the fact Minnesota just took 3 of 4 from the White Sox, that's a big division rival and in doing so they put away the AL Central so the “accomplishment” just took place.

I think Minnesota is playing out the string while the Reds (who have won 5 of 7) are playing for a playoff spot and I like the Reds to play a close game and likely win here.

Play on Reds +1.5 (-123) for 4% (or 4 units)