Recent Play Details

3% Take Pittsburgh (#292)

The lookahead line for this game (a bettable pointspread from before the Week 1 games were played), was Pittsburgh -1.  Now the Steelers are two point home dogs. That three point adjustment after Week 1’s results is too much; offering legitimate value on Mike Tomlin and his long term 15-5-3 ATS mark as a home underdog.

The Browns looked great in Week 1; the Steelers looked terrible.  Both were supposed to be ‘stepping up in class’, but only one did.  The Steelers faced (arguably) the single best team in the NFL right now in San Francisco, and the 49ers were laser focused, remembering their opening day debacle at Chicago in 2022.   The Steelers made some mistakes early and couldn’t rally back; a game that was all but over by halftime.  Tomlin: “We got kicked in the teeth today in a lot of ways.”  I want the Steelers, back at home, with a chance for redemption in front of a national TV audience.

The Browns dominant win over the Bengals needs to come with an asterisk, because Cinci struggled mightily again in Week 2; a team that wasn’t ready out of training camp for the second consecutive season.  Cleveland right tackle Jack Conklin is out for the year; star receiver Amari Cooper isn’t likely to suit up, dealing with a groin injury.  Deshaun Watson threw a pair of interceptions in a two TD loss to Pittsburgh to close out last year, and he only threw for 155 in the opener – it’s not like we can trust Cleveland’s passing game against a quality stop unit. 

Week 2, 1-0 teams (like the Browns) vs 0-1 teams (like the Steelers) since 2010, heading into this past weekend?  41-61 ATS, consistent and significant money losers.  Live home dog here.  Take the Steelers.

Line Parameter: 3% at +1 or higher, 2% at pk/-1.  NO ACTION if you have to lay more than -1 with Pittsburgh (not what I expect, but just in case)