Recent Play Details

4% #291 Cleveland Browns (-130) over Pittsburgh Steelers — 

The home-team has had the edge in this series in recent years but I think that takes another turn tonight. Cleveland, in my opinion, had one of the 3 most impressive performances of the opening week. San Francisco and Dallas would be the only comparison w/ the lack of defense in the LAC/MIA game.

Cleveland’s … or should I say Jim Schwartz’s defense … allowed just 3 points, 6 first downs (1 on a penalty, 5 by the Bengals offense), and held the Bengals to just 2-15 on 3rd down conversions. Burrow had arguably the worst game of his career, with 14-31 passing (45.2%) for 82 yards, resulting in 2.6 yards/attempt, ALL of which are CAREER LOW STATS in a game. 

Meanwhile, Ja’marr Chase has had the worst 2-GAME span of his career, with just 70 yards, thanks to the shutdown performance in the opener. 

Cleveland’s offense showed some glimmers of hope, but their defense was the key and should show up again tonight. 

Pittsburgh, like Cleveland, is dealing with the injury bug as well, but the impact that it has had on the big name players for the Steelers is more impactful for this game than it is for the Browns. Amari Cooper and Thornhill would be big losses for Cleveland, but without question Cam Heyward is the biggest loss, and in my opinion Diontae Johnson is a close second. 

Cam Heyward’s injury beens a DRASTIC difference in the run-defense, while they will still have a HUGE presence in the pass rush, the Steelers run defense has suffered without Heyward in the line-up … take a look at last year. On the opposite side, Diontae Johnson was one of the most targeted receivers for this team in the opener, it leaves it noticeably easier to defend George Pickens and Washington now, with less of a distraction and it makes it more difficult to open up the run game as well. 

Pittsburgh only rushed for 41 yards last week and threw for just 6.39 yards/attempt … while Nick Chubb averaged almost 6 yards/carry himself! Pittsburgh needed A LOT of help moving the ball, 20% of their 3rd down conversions came on penalties and they were just 1-11 on 3rd down from outside 2 yards.

Teams on MNF playing at home off a L, when the line is > -7 (so, DOG or FAV of 6.5 or less) … just 4-11 ATS in week 2. It is hard enough to bounce back from a bad loss against your own division … but ADD IN the fact that their division is one of the best in the league, and they are doing in ON MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL in the spotlight … 

Not an ideal opportunity to turn things around in my opinion, and the door should be open for Chubb to go off tonight.