Recent Play Details

3% Teaser (6 pt) - Panthers & Steelers (7:15 / 8:15 ET): We’ve got TWO Monday Night Football games in NFL Week 2 and in both we’ve got a low total with the home team being the underdog. I’ll tease both the Panthers and Steelers through the “key numbers” of 3 and 7. For what it’s worth, the last 14 NFL Primetime games where the road team was favored have ALL stayed Under (SNF pending). So we probably shouldn’t expect a ton of scoring from either favorite. Thus, getting more than a touchdown with the two home teams seems like the best course of action on MNF. 

In the case of Carolina, a team with a new HC (Frank Reich) and rookie QB (Bryce Young), the defense at least did its job in Week 1, holding Atlanta to only 221 total yards. It’s not like the Saints, now with Derek Carr at QB, were an offensive juggernaut either. They put up only 16 points in a 1-point home victory over Tennessee. While there was no Carr, the Panthers swept LY’s season series with the Saints, allowing only 21 points total. Over the previous two seasons, New Orleans has not scored more than 18 against Carolina in any of the four head to head meetings. As mentioned in last week’s analysis (had Tenn +3), I’m not sold on Carr being a huge difference maker this year for this Saints’ offense. There’s no Alvin Kamara either (suspended). Young threw two INTs vs. Atlanta but should play better at home. The Saints are 1-5 L6 on MNF and are always weaker away from home. 

Now let’s talk Browns-Steelers. This line feels like an overreaction to Week 1 when the Browns blew out the Bengals (24-3) and the Steelers got blown out (here at home) by the 49ers (30-7). I don’t think the Browns should be favored in Pittsburgh by the same number of points the far superior 49ers were. Prior to last week, HC Mike Tomlin had been GREAT as a home dog (16-4-3 ATS). The Browns’ defensive performance last week now looks a little bit less impressive with the Bengals scoring just one offensive TD on Sunday. I watched a lot of that game and QB Deshaun Watson did not look good throwing the ball. Since 2004, the Browns have won just once in Pittsburgh and that came in the 2021 Playoffs. Can’t see the Steelers getting blown out B2B weeks at home - where they’ve won 20 in a row SU on MNF. 3% Teaser (6 pt) - Panthers (+7.5 or better) and Steelers (+7.5 or better)