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Panthers (7:15PM ET ESPN) – We go 1-2 on Sunday as the Falcons battle back for a late win over the Packers but the Bengals and Texans both fall short.  In spite of that we are still off to an excellent start in the 2023/24 NFL season and I’ll head to Monday Night Football to get out of Week 2 2-2 when the Carolina Panthers take on the New Orleans Saints at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. 

After watching every snap of the Falcons game yesterday I’m now even more impressed with what I saw from Carolina in their season opening loss in Atlanta. The Panthers outgained the Falcons 281 to 221 in that game, managed 20 first downs to the Falcons 13 and it was a couple of untimely turnovers that made that score line look far worse than it should have for the Panthers.  New Orleans, on the other hand, is a very fortunate 1-0 as the Saints got a win despite scoring just 16 points and committing multiple turnovers.  The Titans somewhat “gift wrapped” that game for New Orleans and that misleading result has the Saints overvalued as field goal favorites here.  The Titans defensive front was all over Derek Carr, he was under pressure all game and I could see Carolina having similar success after sacking Desmond Ridder four times last week.  Atlanta was able to counter that by giving the ball to Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson, both of which averaged more than five yards per carry against the Panthers, but the Saints didn’t run the ball at all against the Titans last week so there’s no guarantee they can lean on the run game here.  New Orleans has some issues along their offensive line at the moment, the Panthers have an underrated defense and I think the +3 could play here.

New Orleans somehow only gave up 15 points last weekend which is also deceiving since the Titans had nearly 300 yards of total offense.  The Titans took a couple bad penalties and committed costly turnovers which let the Saints defense off the hook.  Carolina could very well do the same thing, it’s basically what happened to the Panthers against the Falcons to cause them to lose the game despite dominating the stat sheet.  There’s also the possibility that doesn’t happen since the Saints generate very little pressure via the pass rush so rookie quarterback Bryce Young won’t be constantly harassed the way he was last week.  Just look at Jordan Love, Week 1 when he had all the time in the world to make decisions against the Bears he played a great game while Week 2 the Falcons relentless pressure started to catch up with him and he threw for just 151 yards in what was eventually a losing effort.  I’m not saying Young still won’t make a mistake or two but I think he ends up with enough time to make enough plays to offset the mistakes, something he wasn’t able to do against a far better defensive team in the Falcons.

Another reason Carolina struggled to get it going offensively in their season opener was the Panthers played that game without new WR DJ Chark.  He’s still listed as questionable, but I think Chark gives it a go here and just his presence on the field should open things up for the Carolina passing game.  I’m expecting Carolina to win this game with their superior defense so ANYTHING from the Panthers offense is a bonus here.  I don’t think Carolina is a very good offensive football team but there’s probably some unrealized potential there and I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibilities that the Panthers offense looks surprisingly good against the Saints poor defense here.  Finally this game is in Carolina, the Saints haven’t played well here historically and that includes against some poor Panthers teams in recent years.  I make Carolina a slight favorite at home here, I think the fact this game is on Monday Night Football magnifies the “home” spot for Carolina and I’ll take my chances getting the full field goal with the Panthers here.  Play on Panthers +3 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)