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1:40 PM ET -- MLB 

903 Cincinnati Reds
904 New York Mets

Play: 904 NY METS -130

List Pitchers: Williamson & Quintana

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at -140 or better
2% play at -141 to -145

In my opinion, this is one of those "line doesn't make sense" games.  Consider the following:

-> The Reds have the much better overall record. 
-> The Reds' road record is better than the Mets' home record.
-> The Reds' record against LHSP is much better than the Mets'.
-> Reds hitters have a career .380 average in 75 plate appearances against Quintana.
-> Mets hitters have never faced Williamson, which gives Williamson an early edge and that edge is usually stronger when a team is facing a lefty for the first time.
-> The oddsmakers know everything I mentioned in this list.

So, why are the Mets favored here?  The ONLY thing I see is that Williamson hasn't been quite as good on the road as he has been at home this season, while Quintana has been very good at home.  Still makes no sense to me and looks way too easy to take the Reds at a nice plus-money price.  You know me, I'm gonna go in the opposite direction.