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Falcons (1PM ET FOX) – The loaded 1PM ET wave of games worked out for us last weekend and I’m hoping it does again in Week 2 as I’ll lock in another best bet when the Atlanta Falcons take on the Green Bay Packers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

Mistake made by me here, I’ve been talking about the Falcons since Tuesday, the same day that I locked in the Texans (which we got at +1.5), but didn’t lock in the Falcons and now we are forced to take a lesser number here.  I was fine with Falcons at PICK so I’m just going to lay the -130 and play the money line and deal with the repercussions if this game somehow lands 1 or the Falcons lose (and we lose some extra juice).  I don’t think either of those things are going to happen, I thought the Falcons were dominant against the Panthers in a game where Atlanta barely scratched the surface offensively.  Some will point to the fact Atlanta was outgained 281-221 by Carolina but that’s misleading as the Falcons defense controlled that game and second half adjustments allowed the Falcons to pull away.  Atlanta forced three turnovers, they consistently pressured the quarterback and I think that activity along the Falcons defensive front is going to make life difficult for Jordan Love and the Packers here.  The Bears were a layup of a matchup for Green Bay, Atlanta on the road will be much tougher and I think Love and the Packers fall short here. 

There’s no question Jordan Love passed his first test as a pro as the Packers destroyed the Bears last week but the Bears were a disaster on the offensive and defensive line and it allowed Green Bay to dominate in those areas. Green Bay has an elite offensive line, the Bears were able to generate little to no pressure and Love was able to make easy throw after easy throw to lead his team to a blow out win.  If the Falcons defense was anything like it was last weekend Love will have far more difficult plays to make, he’s likely without Aaron Jones and Christian Watson for this game so making plays for Love gets more difficult here.  The same can be said abut Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder but Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is an offensive mastermind and I don’t think last week was close to the ceiling for this Falcons team.  It’s true right now Ridder is more of a game manager but he was an efficient 15 for 18 passing with Tyler Allegeier and Bijan Robinson both averaging over five yards per carry.  Drake London and Kyle Pitts are both huge weapons in the passing game that weren’t involved at all last weekend so I believe there’s an entire dimension of this Falcons offense that we didn’t see at all against the Panthers.  Green Bay played a decent game against Justin Fields but he was behind a compromised offensive line.  Atlanta won’t have that problem and their ability to hang in the trenches with Green Bay should put the Falcons in a nice position to win here.

I should have bet Green Bay last weekend, I talked about it being a home run matchup for the Packers on shows all week but missed the good number and decided I couldn’t get involved at +1.  The reason I bring that up is I feel like Green Bay is one of the teams I have nailed right now, I think the Packers will be a great bet in games where their offensive and defensive front can dominate but when that isn’t the case I’ll be willing to go against them since I don’t think Love is ready to carry his team to a win just yet. That’s what I think Green Bay will be up against here, Atlanta’s defense looked outstanding last weekend while the offense showed very little against the Panthers and simply has to have a game plan that gets Pitts and London more involved.  If there’s another level to the Atlanta offense and it shows up today I think this ends up being a comfortable Falcons win.  Play on Falcons -130 for 4% (or 4 units)