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1 PM ET -- NFL
277 Baltimore Ravens
278 Cincinnati Bengals
Play: 278 CINCINNATI -170 Money Line
Bet Size: 5%
Line Parameters:
5% play at -170 or better
4% play at -171 to -175
3% play at -176 to -180
There's inevitably some joker that says, "If you're so confident in your play that you're betting 5%, then why take the money line instead of laying the points?" The answer is simple and has absolutely nothing to do with confidence. It's about value. Laying -170 on the money line is a better value than laying -3 at -120. That's not my opinion. There are calculators online that figure this stuff out. Anyhoo...
We cashed with the Ravens last Sunday, but they didn't look all that great. In fact, Baltimore managed just 265 total yards of offense against Houston. Sure, the Ravens defense held Houston to 268 total yards, but that was against rookie QB C.J. Stroud making his first NFL start.
These games are won and lost at the line of scrimmage. Baltimore will be without two of its starting offensive linemen in tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum. The Ravens also lost RB J.K. Dobbins last Sunday.
The Bengals looked like hot garbage in their 24-3 road loss to the Browns. QB Joe Burrow completed less than 50% of his passes for just 82 yards before they waved the white flag and took Burrow out of the game. Burrow was clearly rusty, having missed more than a month with a calf strain. Embarrassment is a great motivator for a pro athlete, and I fully expect the Bengals to play a very solid game here at home. Burrow should show improvement with some of the rust removed.