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1 PM ET -- NFL

271 Chicago Bears
272 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Play: 271 CHICAGO +2.5 even

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at +2.5 or better
2% play at +2

I advise that you wait to see if +3 pops up again.

The Bears have lost 11 straight games under coach Matt Eberflus going back to last season.  Tampa Bay went on the road last Sunday and upset the Vikings.  Now we can get the Bucs laying less than a field goal at home against the Bears.  Does anyone else think that seems a little fishy?

A deeper dive shows that Tampa Bay was very fortunate to beat the Vikings.  The Bucs were out-gained by 127 total yards, but benefitted from a +3 turnover margin.  Meanwhile in Chicago, the Bears were only out-gained by 18 total yards yet lost by 18 to the Packers thanks to a -2 turnover margin that included an INT-return TD.

So, we have two teams that were on opposite ends of misleading Week 1 scoreboards.  These are the situations I always look for.  Wait for +3, but bet on Chicago anyway at +2.5 if that +3 doesn't show.