Recent Play Details

GB -1 vs Atl (40.5).

• We bet the Under in the GB in Week 1 and lost. But that game was 10-6 at half and then the Bears did their thing and let the pack put up 28 on them in the 2nd half.
• The pack are not a team that will put up 38 points very often and frankly again this season. This is a team that will run run and run and slow the clock down to a crawl. This is a team that will put together 7 minute drives that ends in FGs and a team that has a really really good Defense.
• If you were a client of mine or listened to this show, you know I liked the Under in Atlanta last week and although I didn’t release it, I did mention that I was personally betting 2% on that Under and it hit.
• Now we have 40.5 on board and again I think this is too many points.
• The Falcons put up 221 total yards last week for 26th best in league and pulled a Justin Fields, by not even breaking 100 yards in the air.
• I think we see both these teams play to the Under all year and I think if GB didn’t have that 2nd half against the Bears, this number would be 38.
• The only way the Falcons win games is too put together long, time killing drives and I think we see them struggle in the red zone all year long.
• I do like GB here and they might make my Circa card, but the better bet is on the Under.
• I am not going to get enamoured by what GB did last week and I think we see a 20-17 type of football game.
• 3% - GB/ATL Under 40.5

LINE IS GOOD TO 39.5

Bets

• BET 4% - 10 point 3 team teaser - Buff, SF & Dallas
• BET 4% - Cincy -3
• BET 4% - SEA/DET Over 47
• BET 3% - GB/ATL Under 40.5
• BET 3% - Chi/TB Under 41.5
• BET 2% - Miami/NE Over 47

Prop Bets

• Richardson anytime TD +160
• Bijon Over 18.5 Yards Receiving
• Waller Over 44.5 Yards Receiving

Circa

• Green Bay Packers +1.0
• Detroit Lions -4.5
• Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
• New York Giants -4.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

Survivor

• Buff

Leans

• LEAN - Wash +3.5 vs Denver - this is my 2nd fav side
• LEAN - Indy +1 vs Houston
• LEAN - KC/Jax Over 51
• LEAN - NYG -4 vs Zona
• LEAN - LAC -3.5 vs Tenn - now at -2.5 almost made this a play

No Opinions on Spread or Total

• LVR +9.5 vs Buff (48)
• SF -8 vs Rams (44)
• NYJ +9.5 vs Dallas (38)

GB -1 vs Atl (40.5).

• We bet the Under in the GB in Week 1 and lost. But that game was 10-6 at half and then the Bears did their thing and let the pack put up 28 on them in the 2nd half. 
• The pack are not a team that will put up 38 points very often and frankly again this season. This is a team that will run run and run and slow the clock down to a crawl. This is a team that will put together 7 minute drives that ends in FGs and a team that has a really really good Defense. 
• If you were a client of mine or listened to this show, you know I liked the Under in Atlanta last week and although I didn’t release it, I did mention that I was personally betting 2% on that Under and it hit.
• Now we have 40.5 on board and again I think this is too many points. 
• The Falcons put up 221 total yards last week for 26th best in league and pulled a Justin Fields, by not even breaking 100 yards in the air.
• I think we see both these teams play to the Under all year and I think if GB didn’t have that 2nd half against the Bears, this number would be 38.
• The only way the Falcons win games is too put together long, time killing drives and I think we see them struggle in the red zone all year long.
• I do like GB here and they might make my Circa card, but the better bet is on the Under.
• I am not going to get enamoured by what GB did last week and I think we see a 20-17 type of football game.
• 3% - GB/ATL Under 40.5

Sea +6 vs Det (47.5)

• Just like the Balt and Cincy game - how good is Det and how bad is Sea.
• My take is simple - Det is that good - their D looks for real while Sea, although not as bad as they showed in the 2nd half against the Rams, are a mediocre football team with a terrible secondary.
• What is interesting to me here is that both offenses sputtered in Week 1 and we expect both to be highly efficient and effective.
• We are going to look to play the Over in this game and lucky for us the number has been bet down from 51 and 49. Frankly, I was going to play the over at 51, so happy for the line move.
• Let’s look at why.
• First off both these teams are deep passing teams. St Brown and Metcalf will have big days and both should get to 100 yards of receiving.
• This game is going to be played on carpet and it should help with the speed of these dynamic wide receivers.
• We saw last year that Det can sputter on offense at times, but also have the capability of putting up 40+ points themselves in a game. If the Rams can move the ball on Seattle, the Lions should eat them alive.
• As for Seattles offense - let’s not overthink this and just assume they will be as bad as they were in the 2nd half of week 1. This is a high profile offense with weapons up and down. They have a great WR corp, a good running game and a QB that can get the ball downfield.
• I think we have to go counter intuitive from last week and I think we see the highest scoring game of the week here.
• I would not be surprised if it is something like 34-27.
• I lean on the Lions, but 6 is just too many points, so we are going to take the Over.
• 4% BET - Sea/Det Over 47.5

KC -3 vs Jax

• Playoff losing revenge game for the Jags and also a chance to make a huge statement that they are here and ready for a run.
• With that said, they got unlucky and have to play KC coming off not only a loss, but really one of their worst offenses performances in a while. 
• The issue here is KC dominated the 1st game and if a few dropped passes were actually caught they win that game handily. 
• Furthermore Jax didnt look great against Indy and allowed Indy 280 yards of offense, 215 yards in the air and 21 points scored.
• Let’s bottom line this - no chance I am taking KC -3 as this team might be on the decline - they also might not and last week was an aberration - we just don’t know and if we don’t know we are not betting it.
• What do we know
• Both teams can move the ball and move the ball fast - Even with a ton of dropped passes, KC still put up 316 yards of offense and 226 in the air. Jax put up 342 yards of offense and 237 in the air. 
• Both teams have long bomb capabilities and we see Jax trying to stretch the field all the time. 
• I also think that both Defenses are middle of the pack and regardless of how well KC’s D played against Detroit, they are just not that great.
• There is no other way to bet this game then to take the Over - yes it is 51, but I can easily see a 30-27 game here.
• LEAN - KC/Jax Over 51

Chi +3 vs TB (42)

• Great start to the season for TB, as although they played like crap most of the game, they got the drives they needed, the turnovers required and snuck out of Minny with an upset win.
• As for the Bears - well you all know my thoughts on this pathetic joke of a football team.
• I would take the Bears in this spot, if they were getting 30 points lol, but it is unlikely you will see me bet on the Bears all season.
• As for betting against them, I just can’t do it, as I don’t believe in the Bucs even if all they have to do is win by 3.
• We are looking to take the Under here and I am shocked this number is 39.
• Sure TB put up 20 last week and so did the Bears, but Chicago’s 20 was phoney and again Fields couldn’t really move the ball. They put up 189 yards of offense and like last year are going to be a run first football team.
• As for the Bucks, they only put up 242 yards of offense and did even worse than the Bears in passing, not even breaking 169.
• So here we have 2 teams that will run the ball a ton - 2 teams that absolutely struggle in the red zone - 2 teams that will kick more FGs than score TDs and 2 teams that will play to the under all season long.
• Yes, both defenses suck ass I get it and we should see more yards by both teams then we did last week - but I don’t think we see a ton of actual TDS in this game.
• I would not be surprised if this game ends 17-13 which is 12 points less than the total.
• 3% BET - Chi/TB Under 41.5

LAC -3.5 vs Tenn (45.5)

• Here is a game with 1 team being an over (LAC) and the other who will play to the Under all year (Tenn).
• Let me start by saying in this spot, I normally pass on the Total and I will in this game as well.
• What I like here are the Chargers and although I think Tenn is better than most pundits, I just don’t think they can keep pace with the Charger offense.
• No-matter what the Chargers are going to get points and likely 27-31 points at that. This Tenn D is terrible and although they played well against the conservative Saints, they are stepping up in class this week.
• So if I think we get a minimum of 27 points from the Chargers, how many points will Tenn score. I think they average around 18 this season and I think somewhere between 17-24 is the right number. 
• I hate betting road favourites of more than a FG, but I am very bullish on the Charger team and if they can hang in the 30s on Miami, they can do it in Tenn.
• The Chargers put up 433 years of offense against Miami last week for the 2nd most yards of week 1. Tenn put up 285 yards and that seems high for them. 
• I have to bet the Chargers here and they will likely make my Circa card.
• LEAN - LAC -3.5 vs Tenn

NYG -4 vs Arizona (39.5)

• The interesting thing about the Wash/Zona game is I think we might have seen Zona play their best game of the year and still they lost.
• This team is going to be a total disaster this coming season and after Monday’s loss to Dallas, many think the same for the Giants.
• This line is not over-reacting to the Giant’s debacle, but I guarantee you the general public is.
• This team not only made the playoffs last year, but they won a game and yes they stunk it up in Week 1, but that will be the worst game they play all season.
• How do you right the ship after such a horrible loss - you play the Cardinals and that is why we are leaning on the Giants.
• There is almost no-way this game will make my card, but if I had to bet it, I think we see a huge bounce back from NY and a score of 24-13. 
• I would lean on the Under here but my line is just too close to the current 39.5. If we get to 40.5, the Under would be the play, but until them we are taking the Giants to start fixing their season.
• This Giant’s bet might make my circa card.
• LEAN - NYG -4 vs Zona

Wash +3.5 vs Denver (39)

• We were on the Raiders last week, and I told you all over and over again that Hackett although terrible was not the reason Wilson sucked. The reason Wilson sucked last season, is because he sucks. Sure he had a great career, but he is at the end and really has struggled for a year and a half.
• I came into the season liking Wash, but after seeing them play Zona, I like them even more. I grant you their offense struggled in Week 1, but I was very impressed with Sam Howell and think Wash might have finally found they’re started.
• What I also know is that Wash has a monster D, especially up front and should get to Wilson all game long. 
• How is this Broncos team favoured by any points here. They absolutely stunk last season and frankly stunk again in Week 1. They have a good D, but their offense is a mess and will be all season long.
• I would look to take the Under in this game and think we see at most 2 TDs by Denver all game. I think Denver puts up a ceiling of 20 points here and yet they are favoured by more than a FG.
• Washington is going to play every team close this year - every single team and the more reps Howell gets the better this offense will become.
• Washington is the play here - they will make my circa card and I would not be surprised if they win this game outright.
• LEAN - Wash +3.5 vs Denver

Miami -2.5 vs NE (47)

• Wow did Tua and this Miami offense look good - like wow.
• Wow did this Miami D look bad - like wow.
• The Pats were the tale of 2 halfs - sucking crap in the 1st half and then moving the ball up and down the field in the second half.
• The most interest stat of the Pats game was Jones threw the ball 54 times - yes 54 times and yes they were playing from behind, but that is still an amazing number.  This is largely because they were playing from behind and frankly could not get their run game going - at all.
• Will be interesting to see how Pats run in this game as the Chargers torched Miami on the ground to a tune of 252 yards.
• The Dolphins D stunk it up last week, with LA putting up 433 yards of offense and just could not be stopped. 
• Here is what we know - this Miami team can score all day long but they can be scored on - this Pats team will likely come out running the ball to take advantage of Miami’s bad Run D, but that will set up some long bombs and we saw that Miami is susceptible to that as well. 
• Furthermore Miami struggled to run the ball against a D that couldn’t stop the run last year and will likely do worse on the ground this week - forcing the ball to be thrown. 
• If I had to bet the side here I would take Miami, but I don’t and we will instead look at the Over.
• Anytime this Miami team has a total of 50 I will look to bet them over and now it is only 47.
• I know this Pats team will play to the Under, but they won’t be able to stop Miami and we know they can come back an score themselves.
• 2% - Miami/NE Over 47