Recent Play Details

3% (6 pt) Teaser Seahawks & Bills (1:00 ET): I know that Seattle doesn’t qualify as the classic Wong Teaser, but I missed the best of the number here (+6) yet can still tease through the key numbers of 7 and 10. That’s good enough for me. As I mentioned in the Chicago writeup, teams that got blown out by double digits in Week 1 have come back to cover at an impressive 63% ATS rate in Week 2. It was certainly an embarrassing loss to the Rams in the home opener for Seattle, but I like the idea of “selling high” on Detroit, who is off the upset win in Week 1 over Super Bowl Champion Kansas City. 

The Lions got a pick six and watched as KC receivers seemingly could not catch a pass, yet still were able to win that game by only a single point. I guess it speaks to the level of expectations we have for the Lions that simply “beating the Super Bowl Champs” can now be picked apart. But the bottom line is that this is a classic “letdown” spot for them. Now they do have the rest advantage, which is part of the reason I’m teasing the Seahawks rather than taking them +4.5. Also note Seattle upset Detroit here last season, 48-45. I don’t think Geno Smith is capable of another game like that, but do think he and the ‘Hawks stay within 10. 

The less said about what happened the Bills on MNF, the better, at least as far as their fans are concerned. That was a brutal loss in a game that saw Jets’ QB Aaron Rodgers exit after just four plays. Tough to lose to Zach Wilson, but four turnovers will do that. Now the Bills come back home to host the Raiders and I just can’t see them losing this game. For some reason, money has come in against them and we can now tease down through the key numbers of 7 and 3. I’ll happily do so as the Raiders “never” win at 1:00 ET. 0-1 teams favored by more than 7 against a 1-0 team are 13-2 SU L20 years and Allen is 16-1 SU as a home favorite of 7 pts or more in his career. 3% (6 pt) Teaser: Seahawks (+4.5 to +10.5) and Bills (-8 to -2)