Recent Play Details

4% Chicago (1:00 ET): I cashed with Tampa Bay last week (a 4% play) as they went on the road and upset Minnesota. Early in the summer, I went on the record that I’d be firing on the Bucs in Week 1 and that the line was certain to drop before kickoff. That’s precisely what transpired. But, if you read the analysis, then you’d also see how it was only the underdog role that could interest me in the Bucs this season. Sure enough, with their Week 1 upset coupled with the Bears getting blown out by the Packers, oddsmakers heavily adjusted and TB is now -2.5 in Week 2 (were +1.5 lookahead) and even got as high as -3 at one point. 

Though the Bucs won on the field in Minnesota, digging into the box score reveals that they were actually outgained 369-242 in total yards and 5.9 to 3.2 on a yards per play basis. That was the largest negative YPP gap for any team that won in Week 1. I’ll credit HC Todd Bowles for an aggressive 4th down decision late in the game, but still was not impressed by QB Baker Mayfield, who is on his 4th team in 14 months. When coming off a SU win as a dog, Mayfield is 3-10 SU the following week in his career. He’s also 0-8 ATS the L8 times as a favorite. 

Now there isn’t a ton of positive things to report for Chicago after they lost to Green Bay (AGAIN). The Bears closed as a favorite in Week 1 but have now lost 11 straight games (last win was before Halloween of last year). Still, I don’t think things were as bad as they looked last week and the good news is teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 are 63% ATS in Week 2. This is a classic “buy low/sell high” spot with the two teams after the respective results last week. Take the points. 4% Chicago (Play to -1.5)