New Mexico State at New Mexico (I'm playing the money line here)
This is an ugly game on paper and maybe even uglier in practice. New Mexico has traditionally been terrible as a favorite (0-8 ATS L8) and terrible against rival New Mexico State (1-7 ATS L8) but this is the Lobos’ chance to exercise some of those demons. They get this game at home and have revenge from last year when they lost as 7-point favorites on the road. Going from a -7 on the road to only needing a SU win on the road seems odd. Yes, New Mexico State made a bowl last year, but all their wins came against bad teams and they don’t look as strong so far in 2023. They’ve already been beaten at home by UMass. They did not cover last week at Liberty, which was good as we had Liberty. New Mexico is better than they were last year with eight starters back on offense and QB Dylan Hopkins transferring in from UAB. The Lobos even brought in Hopkins’ offensive coordinator from UAB. I think the home team wins. 4% New Mexico ML
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