Recent Play Details

4% Buffalo (12:00 ET): Liberty has opened by covering two games as a favorite and is laying a short number (on the road) to a Buffalo team that just lost to an FCS opponent (Fordham). But those Liberty wins came against Bowling Green and New Mexico State and they are +6 in turnover margin, which certainly helped. Covering the number was not easy for the Flames in either game as they were up 24-0 in the opener but their defense let a bad BG offense get back in the game. A late FG was needed to cover there. Last week vs. NMSU, the Flames’ defense came up with a key fourth down stop to preserve the cover. Both those games were at home. 

This one is on the road against a desperate Buffalo team that is staring a potential 0-5 SU start right in the face. The Bulls have road trips to Louisiana and Akron on deck. They should be plenty motivated here after suffering a humiliating 40-37 loss to FCS Fordham where the defense allowed 459 total yards. Note, however, that Buffalo did have an early 21-3 lead in that game. They are 22-13 ATS when catching three points or more at home dating back to ‘05, making them one of the most profitable teams in the country in the home dog role during that time. 

There’s also a precedent here as last season also saw Buffalo lose to a FCS school (Holy Cross) and the following week they bounced back to cover (as 13-pt road dogs) at Coastal Carolina. What’s interesting about that is Liberty HC Jamie Chadwell was the coach of Coastal Carolina last season! Obviously, when a team is coming off a SU loss to a FCS opponent, there’s going to be value as the public will want no part. But remember that Buffalo hung with Wisconsin for a half in the season opener (in Madison). They are certainly capable of the outright upset here against a Liberty team that is just 2-6 ATS in the road favorite role and has two somewhat misleading MOV’s thus far. Take the points. 4% Buffalo (Play to +3)