I actually was leaning on the Ravens and gave them out as a Lean on the Prez Address (which I tape early Tuesday), however after speaking to some big time bettors and going through the injury report and a much deeper dive, I am playing the Bengals. I will put analysis on why by mid afternoon Friday.
I wanted to get this play in before the line fully moved to -3.5, however I would bet this to -4.
The bottom line here is that this is both a play on Cincy and a play against Balt. As for Cincy, this is one of the best teams in the league, coming off a humiliating division loss last week. They have been here before and should have a really big bounce back Sunday. Many of their starters did not play in the preseason including Burrows and it showed, as they were totally out of sync against the Browns. That will not happen Sunday, as this is a crucial game for them and they have now had 2 weeks of preparation with Burrows and this offense. As for the Ravens, this is a good team that has bad luck. They are playing without their center, tackle and starting running back. It is one thing to plug and play running backs, but losing 2 offense lineman including the most important position of center is a total disaster for this team. They will struggle all game with the Cincy pass rush and should have major issues putting the ball in the end zone.