Recent Play Details

5% Florida (7:00 ET): Everyone seems to expect Tennessee to roll in this one. I say “not so fast.” The Vols simply haven’t had much success here in Gainesville, last winning here all the way back in 2003. They did defeat Florida last season in Knoxville, but only 38-33 (as 10-pt home favorites) and haven’t won B2B games in this rivalry since 2003-04. It’s been nine straight losses in “The Swamp.” In fact, the Gators have dominated this SEC East rivalry overall, taking 16 of the last 18 head to head meetings straight up and covering the spread in 14 of the last 19. This will be the first time UT has been favored against Florida on the road since 1993 and it’s actually the largest margin they’ve EVER been favored by in Gainesville! 

While he may have failed to cover the season opener (at Utah), Gators HC Billy Napier is still on a 16-5-1 ATS run as an underdog (going back to his days at Louisiana) with nine outright upsets. He’s covered by an average margin of eight points per game and was 5-0 ATS taking points last year, four of those games coming against ranked opponents. I know many will focus on an inability to defeat Utah in this year’s season opener, but Florida actually had the edge in total yards in that game (346-270), only to be undone by poor field position, going 1 for 13 on third down and nine penalties. I don’t see some of those issues recurring here at home. Also, I know Utah didn’t have its starting QB (Cam Rising), but the Gators were only four-point dogs in Salt Lake City (where no visiting team has won - excluding COVID season - since 2018). Getting more than a TD at home against a lesser foe (compared to the Utes) seems like a real bargain. 

Tennessee’s offense simply isn’t as strong now as they were last year with OC Alex Golesh and QB Hendon Hooker. Last week, they only led FCS Austin Peay 13-6 at the half. The offense has scored 43 fewer points through two games compared to ‘22. Only five starters are back. Four players from LY’s offense were taken in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. QB Joe Milton has completed only two passes longer than 20+ yards. Many will also consider Florida QB (Graham Mertz) a downgrade compared to Anthony Richardson (now in the NFL), but the latter had 20 incompletions in LY’s game. Mertz is completing 73.8% of his passes thus far. The Gators also look to have a very solid offensive line and running game this season. They are quite capable of pulling the outright upset. 5% Florida (Play to +3)