Virginia at Maryland
Virginia and Maryland are former ACC rivals that have not met since 2013. Under head coach Mike Locksley, Maryland has generally dominated non-conference opponents, winning 10 straight such games. But the Terrapins are 0-2 ATS so far this year. They were 38-point favorites against Towson (won 38-6), then 24.5 point favorites vs. Charlotte (won 38-20). Virginia may have scored 35 points in an emotional home loss to James Madison last week, but I don’t see them putting up anywhere close to that number of points this week. They did make a QB change but it still won’t be enough. Speaking of quarterbacks, Maryland’s Tagovailoa is outstanding. If Colandrea does get the nod for Virginia, it will be his first career road start and on a weeknight no less. Maryland fell behind Charlotte 14-0 in part because Tagovailoa threw an early pick six. But after that, the Terrapins ripped off 38 straight points and ended up with a 530-314 edge in total yards. They are the vastly superior team here and playing at home on a Friday night. Virginia is one of the worst P5 teams in the country. 4% Maryland (Play to -17)
I HAVE NO ISSUE WITH 14.5, BUT I AM PERSONALLY BUYING DOWN TO 14.