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Bengals (1PM ET CBS) – Of all the nonsense we have had to endure this summer we remain unaffected in NFL as we pick up right where we left off with a 6-2 NFL Preseason and follow it up with a 3-1 Week 1 including a 5% MAX BET win on the Buccaneers.  Since opening night of the 2021 season I’ve gained more NFL units than anyone else at WagerTalk and I’ll look for more this weekend with another 5% NFL MAX BET when the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Baltimore Ravens at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.  

The Bengals played a terrible game against Cleveland last Sunday (which we were all over with an easy 4% BEST BET winner on Browns +2.5) but the Browns are a team Cincinnati has historically struggled with on the road so a flip to playing at home in what I consider to be a better matchup for the Bengals should produce a desired result for the home team here.  Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow clearly wasn’t himself, as he played through an injury he picked up this summer, but some live reps and another week under his belt should translate to better play out of Burrow here.  I played against Baltimore last week, I thought the Texans would be able to move the ball against a suspect Ravens defense which they did but a young, inexperienced Houston offense struggled to finish drives. Even a banged up Burrow is better than CJ Stroud, the Bengals have historically had solid offensive game plans against Baltimore and I expect it to be no different here.  Baltimore won comfortably 25-9 last weekend but that was a 7-6 game at half and it was Texans mistakes and failure to execute in the second half that were the reason for that final score NOT the Ravens being dominant. With a fully healthy Burrow I make this number in the -6.5/-7 range, Burrow played last week so I have to think he’s healthy enough to pilot his side to a win by at least a field goal here. 

We were ahead of the Ravens injury news last week and I think Baltimore still ends up being very banged up here.  First there’s the obvious, JK Dobbins went down with a torn Achillies last week so Baltimore will be without their RB1 the rest of the season.  I do think running backs are, for the most part, replicable but that’s still one less “weapon” for Lamar Jackson who continues to regress as a quarterback and needs all the help he can get on offense.  Baltimore TE Mark Andrews likely plays here but many thought that would be the case last week so it’s TBD what Andrews status is and how close he is to 100 percent.  I think we are going to see other names pop up on the Baltimore injury report over the next couple days because I’m hearing the same rumblings that I was hearing last week (which I wrote about) before Andrews ended up being a late scratch from the Week 1 actives.  Baltimore might have been able to ease past Houston at home shorthanded but I don’t think they will be as fortunate against a tougher opponent on the road here.

Jackson didn’t play well last week because he was under constant pressure from the Texans defense which might be the case here against a talented Bengals stop unit.  Jackson fumbled twice (losing one of them), he was sacked four times and threw for just 169 yards with zero touchdowns and an interception.  Jackson led the team with 38 rush yards and 6.3 yards per carry but this was hardly a dominant enough rushing performance to offset another poor showing as an actual quarterback by Jackson.  I’ve said it before and will say it again I think Lamar Jackson is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  There’s been reports of him eating unhealthy and lacking focus in the past and this team isn’t good enough for Jackson to get by on raw ability alone.  Baltimore has a lackluster offensive line that likely loses the battle in the trenches with the Bengals defensive front.  I think Joe Burrow in any state likely beats this Ravens team, if he shows up fully fit we will win and cover here easily.  Play on Bengals -3 (-120) for 5% (or 5 units)

Line Parameters:  You should be able to get the juiced -3 at just about any sportsbook but the prices will vary (depending if they have -3 (-120) listed or are making you “buy” the half point) so I will provide some additional context.

I would go no higher than -130 to get the -3 spread here.  If there's a book juicing the -3 past -130 what I would do is play half your bet (2.5%) on the ML and the other half (2.5%) on -3.5.  If it lands 3 you lose a couple tenths of a unit but it's better than paying astronomical vig.