Recent Play Details

4% Miami OH (7:00 ET): SO I view this play very similarly to last week’s 4% winner on Rice. If you recall, the team I faded there (Houston) was coming off an outright win the week prior (against UTSA) and had its Big XII opener (vs. LY”s national runner-up TCU) on deck. Same thing here with Cincinnati. Last week, the Bearcats went to Pitt and pulled the 27-21 upset as 6.5-point road underdogs. Now, unlike Houston, Cincy did finish with the edge in total yards. But just like the Cougars last week, this Big XII newbie now has it’s conference opener (at home vs. Oklahoma!) on deck, making this a classic sandwich spot. 

Miami OH is similar to Rice last week in that this is a local rivalry where they are clearly “little brother.” But just like Rice, that means the RedHawks are going to treat this game as being more important than their opponents. While the all-time head to head series between Miami and Cincinnati is virtually dead even (60-59-7), the Redhawks have lost 16 in a row to the Bearcats, by an average of three touchdowns per game. Last year was a 23-point loss (just 24-17 at half). But this is a better Miami team in 2023 and certainly a weaker Cincinnati team. Even with the spread down to two touchdowns, we’re still getting a nice value on the dog. 

Miami OH did get blown out by Miami FL in the season opener (38-3) and I think that’s certainly contributing to the number we’re getting here. While it maybe too early to start proclaiming that “The U is back,” it just might turn out that the Hurricanes are a pretty good football team. Certainly better than Cincy, which is not reflected in the respective pointspreads for this game and the “Battle of Miamis” two weeks ago. Miami OH QB Brett Gabbert is the better signal caller in this one as last week Cincy QB Emory Jones only mustered 125 yards passing. The underdog is also the more experienced side, not to mention more motivated. Take the points. 4% Miami OH (Play to +12)