Recent Play Details

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4:10 PM ET -- MLB 

955 Arizona Diamondbacks
956 New York Mets

Play: UNDER 7 +100

List Pitchers: Kelly & Senga

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 7 or better
2% play at 6.5

My MLB totals plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Key Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

Merrill Kelly only gave up one run against the Cubs in Chicago in his last start.  But, he only lated 5.2 innings, making it a non-Quality Start.  Since 8/16/2022, the UNDER is a perfect 15-0 when Kelly starts and is coming off a non-Quality Start.  These 15 games stayed UNDER by an average 2.33 runs per game and saw an average of 6 total runs scored.

Kodai Senga has been very tough at home.  His last start was on the road in Minnesota where Senga allowed 2 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings of work.  The Mets lost that game.  Since May 5th, the UNDER is 11-0 when Senga starts with the total set at less than 10 and he is coming off a start in which he allowed at least 1 walk and his ERA was less than 4.00 for the game.  The UNDER is also 8-0 when Senga starts and is coming off a start in which he allowed 7 or fewer hits and the team lost the game.