Recent Play Details

4% Minnesota TT Over (8:15 ET): I thought it was a misleading result for both of these teams in Week 1. The Vikings outgained the Bucs 369-242 with a 5.9 to 3.6 YPP edge. Not that I’m complaining about the 20-17 final score there (Tampa won outright) as I had the Bucs plus the points. Meanwhile, the Eagles were a little fortunate to hold on to beat the Patriots 25-20 as they were outgained 381-252 for the game and 4.9 to 4.1 on a per play basis. Philly (-3.5) was certainly fortunate to cover as they were gifted an early 16-0 lead (that included an INT return for TD) + NE had a late 2-pt conversion called back due to a holding penalty. 

So my initial lean here was to take the points. However, I still have concerns about the Vikings’ defense, not to mention this is a team I’m mostly looking to fade in 2023 as last season’s profile points to heavy regression. That being said, I expect Minnesota to put up at least 21 points Thursday night. They should have scored more than 17 in Week 1, but had two killer turnovers deep in Tampa territory. That’s a good Bucs’ defense they were up against as well. Not that the Eagles aren’t strong defensively, but they have a fairly lengthy injury report on that side of the ball for tonight. 

Two players in the secondary have already been ruled OUT (CB Bradberry, S Blankenship). LB Dean is also out and DT Cox is listed as questionable. With my concerns about the Vikings’ defense, my view is they wouldn’t cover without scoring at least 21. Nor would this game go Over (which is how I lean towards the total) w/o the Vikings scoring that many. This is an offense that averaged 24.9 points per game last season. I know it was a disastrous showing against these Eagles in Week 2 of 2022 (lost 24-7), but I’m expecting a much better effort from the Vikes’ offense this go around. They do have arguably the top WR in all of football, Justin Jefferson, who had 9 catches for 150 yards in Wk 1. 4% MInnesota TT Over (Play to 23.5)